Falling birth rates could leave UK with a ‘reliance on immigration’ | UK | News


Falling birth rates could leave the UK with a “reliance on open immigration” in order to become financially sustainable.

That is according to new research that says three out of four countries will have a shrinking population by 2050. This is largely down to falling birth rates.

A study published in The Lancet predicts that by 2100, over 97% of countries – 198 out of 204 – will have fertility rates below the level needed to maintain their population size.

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors study also forecasts that half of all children born worldwide by the end of the century will be in sub-Saharan Africa.

The researchers warn that these findings present “serious challenges” to global economic growth, particularly with a declining workforce and ageing populations.

Experts say that in places where not many babies are born, things like longer parental leave, free childcare, and better job rights might help a bit. But even with these, many countries won’t have enough babies to keep their population steady.

Dr Natalia V Bhattacharjee, co-lead author and lead research scientist from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine in the US, said: “The implications are immense.”

“These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies.”

Senior author Professor Stein Emil Vollset, from the IHME, said: “We are facing staggering social change through the 21st century.

“The world will be simultaneously tackling a ‘baby boom’ in some countries and a ‘baby bust’ in others.”

The study thinks that by 2050, Niger will have the most babies, with women there having five kids each on average. But if all girls went to school, this number could drop to 2.7 kids.

South Korea might have the lowest number of babies, with just 0.82 children per woman by the middle of the century.

The researchers also said that around the world, women are having fewer babies than before. In 1950, a woman would have about five children, but now it’s only 2.2 children.

They mentioned that countries where not many babies are born might need to make rules to help people who want kids. This could make life better and let more women work, along with having open rules for people moving countries.

“The world will be simultaneously tackling a ‘baby boom’ in some countries and a ‘baby bust’ in others.”

Dr Bhattacharjee said: “There’s no silver bullet.

“Social policies to improve birth rates such as enhanced parental leave, free childcare, financial incentives, and extra employment rights, may provide a small boost to fertility rates, but most countries will remain below replacement levels.”

“And once nearly every country’s population is shrinking, reliance on open immigration will become necessary to sustain economic growth.”

“Sub-Saharan African countries have a vital resource that ageing societies are losing – a youthful population.

She also said: “There is very real concern that, in the face of declining populations and no clear solutions, some countries might justify more draconian measures that limit reproductive rights.

“It is well established that nations with strong women’s rights are more likely to have better health outcomes and faster economic growth.

“It is imperative women’s rights are promoted and protected and that women are supported in having the number of children they wish and pursuing their careers.”



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