Rachel Reeves had a flicker of good news this morning as the economy grew more than expected in February, with GDP rising 0.5%. That’s up from zero in January. That was the last month before the Iran war kicked off, which will shatter any chance of a further recovery. The underlying numbers are horrible, and all pointing one way. Reeves is taxing and borrowing like crazy, yet still can’t make the numbers add up. This isn’t down to Donald Trump, whatever she might claims. This is on her.

Reeves insists the UK is “in a stronger position because of the choices this Government took to build economic stability”. That simply doesn’t tally with reality. What does “stability” mean in her world? Ever-higher taxes, for a start. She’s already raised the burden by almost £70billion, and it’s heading higher still. The IMF expects Britain’s tax take to climb from 37.6% of GDP in 2024 to a whoppinog 42.1% by 2031. That will cost the average household an extra £4,500 a year. So much for her pledge to protect working people.

Yet even after her relentless barrage of tax hikes, Reeves still can’t balance the books. Borrowing is set to hit £130billion. All of that will be added to the national debt, to be paid by future generations. already nearing £3 trillion. She calls it stability. I call it going bust.

In Reeves’s world, stability includes the highest inflation in the West, as well as the highest electricity prices, and highest borrowing costs. All before the Middle East exploded. She's peddling a fantasy of fixing the foundation, but reality is about to bite back. The sums don’t work, and a major saving has to be found if we're to spend more on defence. So once again, attention is turning to the state pension triple lock.

Since its introduction in 2011, the triple lock has lifted millions of pensioners by uprating the state pension by earnings, inflation or 2.5%, whichever is highest. Even so, the UK state pension remains among the lowest in Europe, often reliant on top-ups.

But as the population ages and the worker-to-pensioner ratio deteriorates, critics say it’s no longer affordable. Former Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman is the latest of a long list of MPs to join the assault. She's suggested means-testing it to help fund defence. Others in Westminster are circling. Even Nigel Farage recently said it should be “up for discussion”, although he's since swung back in its support. Keir Starmer has pledged to keep it for this Parliament. Unlike many of his commitments, he hasn't backtracked on that yet.

Pensioners will argue there are easier targets. The welfare bill for working-age sickness benefits is surging. Since Labour’s 2024 election win, another 1.6million people have gone onto universal credit. Around 1,000 new claimants sign on for disability benefits every week, with numbers rising ten times faster than the working-age population.

By 2030, health and disability spending is forecast to hit £120billion a year. Reeves's half-hearted attempt to curb this collapsed into one of Starmer’s trademark U-turns. Labour MPs simply won’t wear it. Pensioners, who are less likely to vote Labour, having seen them in action many times before, may prove the softer target.

As Reeves tanks the economy and Trump's war delivers the final blow, something has to give. The triple lock will come under increased attack. Pensioners have won a brilliant defence mechanism though. The next general election is going to be tight, as the old two-party system collapses. And pensioners are more likely to use their vote than anybody else. Politicians know that, too.