Andy Burnham has a 10-point lead over Reform UK in the Makerfield by-election, according to a new poll. The Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, who is eyeing a return to Westminster to challenge Sir Keir Starmer's leadership, takes 49% of the vote in the survey ahead of the crunch ballot.

Reform's local plumber candidate Robert Kenyon is in second place with 39%. Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain party comes third with 8% in the Survation poll of 518 voters.

Meanwhile, the Greens take 2% and the Lib Dems and Tories are both on 1%.

The by-election is expected to be a two-horse race between Labour and Reform.

The Greater Manchester Mayor admitted on last night's Question Time that he would make a bid for the Labour leadership if he wins the by-election.

Asked about his intentions if he wins the seat, he said: “I’m not somebody who gets ahead of myself. I can’t do anything unless I’m lucky enough to get the support of people here.

“But if I get your support, I would seek to represent you at the highest possible level and give this constituency maximum power and influence.

“I think Wes Streeting seems to have launched a leadership contest, so if that is running, I would seek to join it. But I’d have to persuade members of the Parliamentary Labour Party to do the same.

“So that’s the only question… I’ve said to my team, let’s have a proper look at this and let’s develop a policy."

Mr Burnham has previously promised a vote for him in Makerfield would be a vote to “change Labour” but had not explicitly said he would launch a leadership bid.

Downing Street insisted that the PM “will not walk away” after Mr Burnham's BBC appearance last night.