A mystery gambler has sparked intense scrutiny after turning a bet into a six-figure windfall by correctly wagering on the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before it was officially announced. According to reporting by the BBC, an anonymous bettor placed a series of wagers on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform, speculating that Maduro would be removed from power by the end of January. The total stake amounted to roughly $32,537 yet it ultimately generated returns of around €372,000 (£322,000), raising questions about whether the extraordinary profit was the result of foresight — or inside knowledge.

Polymarket allows users to bet on real-world events using cryptocurrencies. Data from the platform shows that confidence in Maduro’s imminent downfall was extremely low until shortly before the arrest. On the afternoon of Friday 2 January, traders assigned only a 6.5 per cent chance that the Venezuelan leader would be out of power by the end of the month. That figure edged up to 11 per cent by late evening, before surging dramatically in the early hours of Saturday.

It was during that same window that then-US President Donald Trump announced on social media that Maduro had been captured and was in US custody.

The anonymous account behind the successful wager was created only last month and opened four separate positions — all related to political developments in Venezuela. In total, those trades yielded a profit of approximately $436,000. The identity of the bettor remains unknown, with the account linked only to a blockchain identifier consisting of letters and numbers.

Dennis Kelleher, executive director of the financial reform group Better Markets, said the circumstances were deeply suspicious. Speaking to CBS, he said the trade “has all the hallmarks of an insider bet”, pointing to the sharp movement in betting activity shortly before the arrest became public knowledge.

Several other Polymarket users also reportedly earned tens of thousands of dollars by betting on Maduro’s capture, though none matched the scale of the mystery gambler’s return.

The arrest itself marked a dramatic escalation in US-Venezuela relations. Maduro and his wife were seized during a US military operation at their home on a Venezuelan military base early on Saturday.

The Trump administration justified the operation by unsealing a 25-page federal indictment accusing Maduro and senior allies of conspiring with drug cartels to traffic thousands of tonnes of cocaine into the United States.

If convicted, Maduro could face life imprisonment.

During his initial court appearance, the Venezuelan leader struck a defiant tone. Speaking through a translator, he interrupted proceedings to declare: “I was captured,” before being silenced by the judge. When asked to enter a plea, he stated: “I’m innocent. I am not guilty. I am a decent man, the president of my country.”

Despite Trump’s assertion that the US would temporarily “run” Venezuela, Secretary of State Marco Rubio later clarified that Washington would not oversee the country’s daily governance, aside from enforcing an existing oil quarantine.

The betting windfall has also reignited debate around the regulation of prediction markets. While insider trading is tightly regulated in stock markets, the rules are far looser when it comes to political betting platforms. Congressman Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from New York, introduced legislation this week that would bar government employees from trading on prediction markets if they possess material non-public information.

Prediction markets have grown rapidly in recent years, attracting hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers, particularly during the 2024 US presidential election. Although they faced regulatory pressure under the Biden administration, the sector has enjoyed a friendlier climate under Trump. Notably, Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr, holds advisory roles at both Polymarket and rival platform Kalshi.

A spokesperson for Kalshi said the prediction site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form, including government employees trading on prediction markets related to government activity".