Reform's five-point jump has been confirmed by a second major poll as Nigel Farage's party gears up for big gains in May's local elections. Following pollster YouGov recording a jump of five to 10 points for Reform in its latest two polls, Opinium has now recorded a jump from four to nine points.
According to data released by Opinium, Reform jumped from 26 to 28%, the Greens (15%) and Tories (17%) stood still, while Labour declined by some margin (22 to 19%). This comes as Sir Keir's Labour crashes out in London, Scotland and Wales.
In the capital, both the Conservatives and Labour are set for big losses, with the Greens taking control of several inner London councils, while Reform looks to control three councils in outer east London.
In Wales meanwhile, Reform finds itself neck and neck with Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru, while in Scotland Reform is vying for second place with Labour behind the SNP.
My hunch is a perception of closeness between Farage and Trump - which had knocked the Reform chief's credibility - has waned over time.
Voters could care less whether Farage invests his own money in crypto and frankly schoolboy shenanigans seem fairly insignificant when we face economic crises and illegal immigrant invasions!
As I write this from Southeast Asia, I promise readers nothing Farage says on immigration and criminal justice would seem outrageous in developed democratic Asia.
Never have I seen boat loads of plucky Indonesians trying their luck crossing the Straits. Trust me, there would be no migrant hotels waiting for them here!
Reform knows big gains are needed in the local elections to keep the momentum up. The poll dip was no doubt real but talk of Peak Farage was wildly overblown. Now, the comeback begins.
Reform has a hard road ahead given the forces against it, not least the almighty 'blob'. But Parliament is sovereign and no court sits above it. Reform will have the tools at its disposal to disentangle the quangocracy.
For now though, all eyes will be on local elections which - lest we forget - Labour tried to ban and which only went ahead thanks to challenges from Reform.
