Rupert Lowe is beginning to win over some of Nigel Farage's most loyal supporters, according to a pollster's warning that will raise fresh concerns inside Reform UK. Research conducted ahead of next month's crucial Makerfield by-election suggests Mr Lowe's insurgent Restore Britain movement is starting to gain traction among the very voters who helped drive Reform's rise.

The former Reform MP launched Restore after his acrimonious split from Mr Farage last year and is now threatening to split the Right-wing vote in one of the most closely watched contests in British politics. A recent Survation poll put Reform on 29% in Makerfield, narrowly behind Labour's Andy Burnham on 31%. Restore was found to be polling at 7% - a figure that could prove decisive if support comes predominantly from former Reform voters.

The findings have prompted warnings that Mr Lowe's growing appeal among disillusioned Right-wing voters could damage Reform's hopes of securing a breakthrough victory.

Ed Shackle, a director at polling firm Public First, said recent focus groups had uncovered a striking trend among voters who previously backed Farage.

He said: "And while I would caution that the average voter does not bring them up, and will likely never have heard of Mr Lowe, it is people in our focus groups who were the most enthusiastic Farage backers a year or two ago who are now the ones gently mentioning Restore's name."

The comments suggest Restore is beginning to establish a foothold among white working-class voters who prioritise immigration and who have traditionally formed the backbone of Reform's support.

Mr Shackle said the party remained primarily an online phenomenon but argued its digital reach was beginning to translate into real-world political support.

He said: "They are clearly still, first and foremost, a very online presence, but such is the online reach that they are starting to drip through into the real world."

Restore has built a substantial following on social media, with Mr Lowe attracting more than one million followers on Facebook and hundreds of thousands more on X.

The party has also received public backing from billionaire Elon Musk, who this week declared on X that "Only Restore Britain can save Britain".

Mr Lowe has repeatedly accused Reform of abandoning tougher positions on immigration as Farage seeks to present his party as a credible force of government.

While Reform has pledged to leave the European Convention on Human Rights to tackle illegal migration, Mr Lowe has argued the party's plans do not go far enough and has called for mass deportations.

The growing rivalry comes after a bitter falling-out between the two men. Mr Lowe was expelled from Reform in 2025 following allegations of bullying and threats against senior figures. He has always denied wrongdoing and claims he was pushed out because of political disagreements with Mr Farage.

Makerfield will provide the first major electoral test of Restore's ability to convert online popularity into votes.

Pollsters caution that the constituency may be unusually favourable territory for Mr Lowe's party because of its strong Leave-voting history and focus on immigration.

However, if Restore succeeds in peeling away even a small share of Reform's support, it could hand Labour victory and expose a potentially serious problem for Mr Farage ahead of the next general election.