Andy Burnham needs to get off the fence on how he will keep Britain’s lights on as prime minister. The former Mayor of Greater Manchester commented after nominating himself for the Labour leadership that “it is all starting to feel very real”. Yes. The rest of the country feels the same way.
In a major essay in the Times, he sought to reassure the nation that “keeping people safe” will be his “first priority” – and he recognised “climate and energy security” as two of the key challenges of our time. The task of minimising Britain’s contribution to climate change while securing abundant and affordable energy is a vexing one, and politically dangerous.
The transformation of Russia into a direct security threat has forced the UK to wake up to risks of depending on imported energy. There is the frightening potential of gas pipelines, subsea electricity interconnectors and LNG shipments being attacked in a time of war.
There is also deepening acknowledgement that Britain’s punishingly high energy prices are a brake on growth. This not only holds back a manufacturing revival but makes the UK an unattractive location for energy-guzzling data centres.
Mr Burnham will be keenly aware of these challenges, but also of the political hazards. On the same day that he celebrated winning the Makerfield by-election, the Conservatives snatched from the SNP the erstwhile Labour seat of Aberdeen South by making the by-election a referendum on the future of North Sea oil and gas. Labour came into power with a manifesto pledge not to “issue new licences to explore new fields” but Reform UK and the Conservatives argue it is idiotic to run down Scotland’s North Sea energy sector while importing energy from Norway.
Mr Burnham has said he has “something of an open mind” on North Sea drilling but a change of policy would open up warfare within Labour. The recent King’s Speech recommitted the Government to not issuing new licences to explore new fields.
A radical change of direction would delight trade unionists who want to preserve well-paid jobs in oil and gas and be welcomed by business leaders and lobby groups that argue Britain is missing out on tax revenues by leaving these energy sources untapped. But Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband – a leading contender to be Mr Burnham’s Chancellor – has made the push to clean energy a personal crusade.
Labour still faces significant competition on the Left from the Greens, and Mr Burnham will not want to look weak on climate change. But he also knows that floating voters will not give Labour a second chance at the next election if energy costs climb yet higher and the country looks even more vulnerable to its foes.
At the very least, there will be hopes he will wholeheartedly support gas extraction from the Jackdaw field, east of Aberdeen. Champions of extraction claim it could meet 6% of the country’s gas needs and warn of the risk of shortages in the winter. The industry also wants the windfall tax replaced with a new pricing mechanism. If he fails to deliver on this in the autumn Budget, then he can expect cross-party claims he is consigning Scotland’s economy to swift decline.
He would love it if scientists and engineers unlock plentiful and affordable supplies of clean energy during his time in Number 10. But if he presides over successive winter heating crises, then his prospects for staying in post may melt away.
