After a week in which Japan’s citizens braced themselves for a possible megaquake, the biggest seismic shift came from its political epicentre, as the prime minister, Fumio Kishida, announced his decision to step down next month.
His three years in office will end in late September when his ruling Liberal Democratic party [LDP] selects a new president, who is assured of being approved as Japan’s next prime minister in the LDP-controlled parliament.
Kishida’s decision paved the way for one of the most unpredictable contests for the LDP presidency in recent years.
“By stepping out of the race, Kishida has cleared the way for an especially chaotic LDP election, turning what was already looking like a competitive race with a vulnerable incumbent into a free-for-all with numerous plausible contenders but no obvious favourite,” said Tobias Harris, founder of the Japan Foresight political risk advisory firm.
The list of likely successors includes party insiders, maverick ministers and, unusually for Japan, two MPs under the age of 50. The potential inclusion of two women in the race raises the prospect – albeit an unlikely one at this stage – that the country will appoint its first female prime minister.
It is fitting that the outcome of the party election is so hard to predict, coming at a time of deep uncertainty for the LDP, a loose coalition of conservatives that has governed Japan almost without interruption since its formation in the mid-1950s.
Kishida’s withdrawal from the race has been attributed to the fallout from a string of scandals that have blighted much of his premiership: revelations about his party’s ties to the Unification church in the wake of Shinzo Abe’s assassination in July 2022 and, more recently, public anger over a fundraising scandal that spelled the beginning of the end of his time in office.
The LDP at least has time on its side. Its next leader’s priority will be to regain public trust before the next lower house elections, which are not due to be held until October next year. His successor will also have to address the rising cost of living, escalating tensions with China and North Korea, and the possible return of Donald Trump as US president.
“If the LDP picks its next leader in a way that disregards public criticism of the political funding scandals, the party could suffer a crushing defeat,” said political analyst Atsuo Ito. “The party must choose someone young who has no ties with the present administration and can present a new LDP.”
That would appear to rule out the party’s secretary-general, Toshimitsu Motegi, Ito said, given his association with the brand of factional horse trading that is turning away voters.
It could fall to another 60-something, Shigeru Ishiba, to boost the party’s fortunes. A former defence minister who has confirmed his intention to run, Ishiba has failed in four attempts to become party leader but consistently polls well among voters. He should have little difficulty securing the support of 20 lawmakers that candidates need to enter the race, which will be decided among the party’s 1.1 million members.
Ishiba could face challenges from the digital minister Taro Kono, a fellow moderate, and Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old former environment minister and son of ex-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi.
More intriguing is the possible inclusion of two women.
Economic security minister Sanae Takaichi is a darling of the party’s right-wing who on Thursday demonstrated her conservative credentials with a visit to Yasukuni, a shrine that honours Japanese war dead and is seen by some as a symbol of the country’s militarist past.
Despite his recent tribulations, Kishida could still have a say in who replaces him, particularly if he throws his support behind another potential candidate, Yoko Kamikawa, whom he appointed last year as Japan’s first female foreign minister for almost two decades.
The LDP’s next leader “should be able to bring the party together and manage the government,” said Mikitaka Masuyama, a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. “Someone with experience is better than those who are just popular in voter polls. If Kishida picked Kamikawa, and others in the LDP joined him, she could be the one.”
There was at least some respite for Kishida this week when he invited Japan’s medal winners at the Paris Olympics to his official residence, telling them they had “given the entire nation energy and courage”. But it will be left to his successor to inject the same qualities into his floundering party.
