Some UK sectors are continuing to confound Brexit doom-mongers by performing better than expected – despite the findings of a new survey indicating the decision to quit the bloc has impacted UK-EU goods trade significantly.
The new report, published by Aston University Business School earlier this week, covers the three years since the Brexit trade deal was signed in 2020.
During this period, UK goods exports to the EU have plummeted by 27 percent, and imports by 32 percent, compared to what was projected without Brexit.
However, the report excludes the service sector, which has actually performed better than many experts had anticipated since Brexit.
While the variety of goods exported has fallen – with 1,645 fewer types of British products reaching every EU country – certain sectors including tobacco, railway, and aircraft goods have actually witnessed an increase.
Nevertheless, the report highlights a worsening trend in EU-UK trade in 2023, with declines more accentuated than in previous years.
Industries such as farming, clothing, and wood and paper manufacturing have been especially badly hit, with some export values dropping by over half.
Edible fruit and nuts experienced the steepest decline, with their export value dropping by 73.5 percent.
Smaller EU nations and those further from the UK have felt the impact of the new trade barriers most acutely, while trade with larger, nearby countries has been less affected.
Many small British producers have ditched exports to some EU countries, having been put off by complex post-Brexit regulations, including additional safety checks and labelling requirements.
The report concludes: “The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted policy interventions to mitigate these adverse effects. Key recommendations include sector-specific adjustments to the TCA, streamlining customs procedures through digital technologies, and reconfiguring UK supply chains to enhance resilience and competitiveness.
“Furthermore, supporting firms, especially SMEs, in adapting to new trade barriers will be crucial for sustaining UK trade in the post-Brexit landscape.”
It adds: “As the UK navigates this new trade reality, future research must continue to explore the long-term impacts of the TCA, providing the insights necessary for informed policymaking. By addressing these challenges strategically, the UK can work to stabilise its economic position, enhance trade relations with the EU, and secure its place in the global market.
Jun Du, one of the report’s authors, warned: “The Trade and Cooperation Agreement introduced substantial barriers and there are ongoing and marked declines in the value and variety of UK exports and imports.
“Without urgent policy interventions, the UK’s economic position and place in the global market will continue to weaken.”
Mary Quicke from Quicke’s Cheeses in Devon told the BBC it was “really, really difficult to deal with all the regulatory burdens”.
She used to supply four customers directly in the EU, Ms Quicke explained, but added: “We had to give them away to somebody else.
“We just don’t have the people to do the paperwork.”
