The Opta predictor has come out in favour of the Sokkahroos. Prediction.

Against my better judgment, I’ll let James Paraskevas tempt fate on the email line.

“I am predicting a comfortable, easy 2-0 victory for Australia. China will pose no problem at all and will barely register a shot on target in the entire game.”

Using one’s head, something like this is a reasonable expectation. But having been in the stands at Gelora Bung Karno as the Socceroos failed to beat an Indonesian outfit they should have beaten, too, I’m a little but gunshy.

Had the chance to chat with Rob Cornthwaite, who played for Popovic at Western Sydney, before the game and he mooted the idea of the new coach having his wingers switch sides during the course of the game – left winger Goodwin moving to the right and Irankunda switching to the left – which would allow them to cut inside – into what are called the half spaces – and shoot on their preferred foot. Will be interesting to follow along.

Also interesting to see Popovic go with Miller in his first game in charge. It will be the right back’s first minutes for the Socceroos since his disastrous appearance off the bench in the Asian Cup quarter-finals, where he gave away the penalty and free kick that saw South Korea equalise and then take the lead against Australia.

The 24-year-old has been seeing the field pretty regularly with Hibernian in Scotland this season, which has perhaps given him the edge over the other natural right back in the side, Jason Geria.

Further up the pitch, it looks like Irvine will be playing a deeper-lying midfield role in front of the three centrebacks, which is a similar role to what he plays as skipper of St Pauli in the Bundesliga. Arnold preferred to use him further up the field in his sides but if he’s capable of doing it week in and week out for current Brighton boss Fabian Hürzeler during St Pauli’s push for promotion and retain that position now that they’re in the top-tier, one would think he’s going to be good at it.

There was always a sense that there was going to be some kind of statement made by Popovic in his first side and going away from Ryan in favour of Gauci is certainly that. The 24-year-old hasn’t played a lot of football himself in recent times (having the best keeper in the world in Emiliano Martínez in front of you will do that) but he did feature in Aston Villa’s 2-1 win over Wycombe in the League Cup late last month.

If Popovic is making a statement about game time and form here – which would appear the most likely explanation – Izzo’s late arrival into camp may have come back to bite him, given he’s playing every minute of every game with Randers.

And speaking of home support, four of the seven South Australians in the squad start for the Socceroos tonight: Deng, Irankunda, Goodwin, and Gauci.

As one might expect, a big cheer goes up from the crowd when Irankunda, who left Adelaide United to join Bayern Munich in the offseason, is introduced.

Tony Popovic speaking on the coverage, asked about the speed and dynamism he’s promised to bring to the side.

“We’ve been working off few things in training, in terms of being a bit more dynamic with the ball going forward. But [also] not losing those special traits that Australians always have in being hard to beat and working hard for each other.

“We’ve already spoken as a group, and I think the players are well aware of what it means to play for Australia. And you know, I want the players to enjoy the occasion as well. There’s always expectation and pressure applied when you play for your country, but we also have to make sure that we enjoy these moments in front of great support.”

Starting XIs

Before we get into a deeper look at what to expect from Popovic, it’s worth looking at the overall bigger picture at play for the Socceroos.

After the opening two games of the third phase of Asian qualification, Australia finds themselves sitting second-bottom of Group C after the opening two fixtures – a position that would obviously see them fail to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup if qualification ended today but also fail to progress to the added rounds of qualification that have accompanied the World Cup’s expansion from 32 to 48 teams.

Thus, a win tonight is critical. Especially with a game against Japan in Saitama waiting next week, the three points on offer against China will be vital if the Socceroos to make up ground on the Samurai Blue, who top the group with six points, and second-placed Saudi Arabia and their four points.

The Saudis will play back-to-back games in Jeddah this month, against Japan this evening and then Bahrain next week. And given that Roberto Mancini’s side haven’t looked all-too-convincing themselves so far – held to a draw with Indonesia at home in their opening game – and will need to travel to Melbourne to face Australia in November, Popovic’s side could suddenly begin to ratchet up the pressure on them in a hurry if they took care of business tonight.

Of course, beyond the machinations and scenarios that come with the nerd stuff, the Socceroos could really use an opportunity to shift the narrative. A win over China with a good performance – the margin of victory, once secured, probably second to that performance – would not only serve as a rally around the flag moment for the Australian public in the new Popovic era but also give the players a much-needed morale boost after a difficult few weeks.

Fortunately for them, tonight’s opponent in China is the only nation that sits lower than they in the group, languishing in sixth after being hammered 7-0 on the road in Japan in their opening fixture before then going down 2-1 to a ten-player Saudi Arabia in Liaoning in the following days.

That result against the Samurai Blue saw the team savaged at home, with Shanghai-based outlet The Paper saying that the team had hit “rock-bottom” in the “disastrous defeat” and that the “incompetence” of coach Branko Ivanković had been a “contributing factor to this crushing defeat.” Fans on Weibo went even further, with some even going as far as to say that the team should be disbanded, writing “there is no point in spending the most money on this useless project.”

Preamble