Key events
Portugal make six changes to the side sent out to beat Poland 3-1 at the weekend. Diogo Jota, João Cancelo, Francisco Conceição, Vitinha, João Palhinha and António Silva step up. Meanwhile, though Roberto Martinez has spoken of managing 39-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo’s minutes carefully, Portugal’s 133-goal striker starts.
A reminder of how Scotland have got themselves into their latest scrape: a 2-3 home defeat to Poland, a 2-1 loss in Portugal, and defeat by the same scoreline last weekend in Croatia. All of which means the Group A1 table looks like this …
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Portugal P3 W3 D0 L0 F7 A3 Pts 9
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Croatia P3 W2 D0 L1 F4 A3 Pts 6
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Poland P3 W1 D0 L2 F4 A6 Pts 3
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Scotland P3 W0 D0 L3 F4 A7 Pts 0
In tonight’s other game in A1, Poland welcome Croatia to Warsaw.
Scotland make one change to their starting XI in the wake of the 2-1 defeat in Croatia. Ché Adams takes the place of Lyndon Dykes up front. There are quite a few players on the bench hoping to earn their first cap tonight: Rangers midfielder Connor Barron, Aberdeen defenders Nicky Devlin and Jack MacKenzie, Preston centre-half Liam Lindsay, West Ham midfielder Andy Irving, and goalkeepers Jon McCracken and Robby McCrorie, of Dundee and Kilmarnock respectively. John McGinn, Kieran Tierney, Aaron Hickey, Scott McKenna, Lewis Ferguson, Lawrence Shankland and Angus Gunn are all absent through injury.
The teams
Scotland: Gordon, Ralston, Souttar, Hanley, Robertson, Gilmour, McLean, Christie, McTominay, Doak, Adams.
Subs: McCracken, McCrorie, Barron, Dykes, MacKenzie, Irving, Porteous, Lindsay, Morgan, Nisbet, Gauld, Deviln.
Portugal: Costa, Mendes, A Silva, Dias, Cancelo, Vitinha, Palhinha, Fernandes, Jota, Ronaldo, Conceição.
Subs: Velho, R Silva, Semedo, Dalot, Trincão, B Silva, Félix, Veiga, J Neves, Otávio, Leão, R Neves.
Referee: Lawrence Visser (Belgium).
Preamble
The top-line statistic makes for grim reading: Scotland have won just one of their last 15 matches. That solitary victory doesn’t bring much succour either, coming as it did in an extremely unconvincing 2-0 against Gibraltar, a landmass roughly similar in acreage to that infinitely more picturesque rock, the Bow Fiddle, plus neighbouring fishing villages Portknockie, Findochty and Cullen.
If that (admittedly delicious) statistic isn’t damning enough, here’s some more context. Derbyshire, who came last in cricket’s County Championship this year, won one of 14 games. Rugby league’s London Broncos, bottom of this season’s Super League, won three of 27 at a rate of one in nine. And the worst team in the NFL, the Carolina Panthers, ended last season 2-15. It doesn’t look good, though at least Scotland didn’t trade away Scott McTominay, Billy Gilmour and Ben Doak for Anthony Ralston. Poor Sir Purr.
But the thing is, you can push any old argument with data, and that stat doesn’t tell the whole story. Scotland may have stunk the place out at Euro 2024, but their subsequent Nations League performances have been curate’s-egg level at worst, highly promising if you’re being a little more generous. Steve Clarke’s side have gone toe-to-toe with three nominally better sides in Poland, Portugal and Croatia, playing extremely well for long periods in each match, only to suffer late sickeners every time: a clumsy late penalty here, an equaliser judged millimetres offside there, the all-time relentless nature of the evergreen Cristiano Ronaldo the other.
So yes, Scotland could do with some extra quality, it’s true, and at times they’ve been their own worst enemy. But they could also do with a little bit of luck going their way for once. Portugal, ranked eighth in the world, might not be the best opponents to face when searching for that momentum-shifting break. But Scotland’s barren run has to end sometime, and Hampden is where Portugal’s Iberian cousins Spain lost their last meaningful fixture, so why not tonight? Here’s hoping, anyway. Kick-off is at 7.45pm. It’s on!
