Elections to the worldâs only transnational assembly get under way in earnest on Thursday as Dutch voters go to the polls in a four-day, 27-country ballot that will return 720 MEPs to the next European parliament.
The results of the elections, which will shape the makeup of the next European Commission and could have a major impact on the blocâs political direction in key areas including immigration and climate action, are expected on Sunday evening.
The centre-right European Peopleâs party of the commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, is expected to remain the single biggest group in the parliament, followed by the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberals of Renew.
However, this yearâs ballot is being particularly closely watched because polls project big gains for populist and far-right parties that â while not enough to win them direct power â could significantly increase their influence on the mainstream.
On Wednesday afternoon, hours before Dutch polling stations opened, the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders â whose anti-Islam Freedom party (PVV) shocked Europe by finishing first in elections last November â was campaigning in The Hagueâs market.
Surrounded by a mob of reporters seeking interviews and people demanding selfies, Wilders urged his supporters to vote, saying the election was âabout asylum and national sovereignty. The coming days are crucial for the future of Europe.â
His remarks marked a departure from his usual anti-EU rhetoric. PVV has long called for a âNexitâ referendum on Dutch membership of the bloc, but had to drop that â and other â pledges in its recent agreement to form the next coalition government.
In the latest polls for the Netherlandsâ 31 MEPs, PVV is predicted to go from one seat to eight, neck and neck with the Green-Left-Labour alliance led by the former commission vice-president Frans Timmermans, who is campaigning for a âfree, sustainable, safe and democratic EUâ.
Sermin Civi, 35, who came to the Netherlands from Turkey at one year old, was one of the crowd taking a selfie with Wilders, whom she said she admired for his anti-immigrant rhetoric.
âWhat he says is true,â she said, âalthough he says it hard. Itâs not about Moroccans and Turks who live here, but refugees. We work hard and we canât even find a house. As he says, the country is full.â
But with national Dutch press and chatshows dominated by the announcement of a new prime minister, the former intelligence chief Dick Schoof, interest in the European elections in the Netherlands is lower than ever.
In 2019, turnout in the Netherlands was 42% â less than the EU average, even though it was one of the founding nations of the bloc â and even some ministers have been unable to cite the names of the partiesâ list leaders.
The new rightwing coalitionâs key plans will need European agreement for a proposed opt-out on migration, milder pollution rules, and lower future financial contributions, but there still is a sense of malaise.
âThe whole campaign is a lame duck,â said Louise van Schaik, the head of EU and global affairs at the Clingendael Institute thinktank. âItâs similar to behaviour from the Brits before Brexit. Letâs say weâre not in love with the EU â but we also donât want to leave it.â
Wilders now backs the formation of a far-right supergroup in the European parliament, an idea floated by the leader of Franceâs far-right National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen, but unlikely to materialise due to factional rivalries and stark policy differences.
PVV sits in Le Penâs far-right, anti-EU and often Moscow-friendly Identity and Democracy group (ID), which also includes Matteo Salviniâs League in Italy, Austriaâs Freedom party (FPÃ), and Vlaams Belang in Belgium. ID recently expelled Germanyâs Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) as too extreme.
Its rival is the national-conservative, more EU-constructive and largely pro-Ukraine European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which includes Giorgia Meloniâs Brothers of Italy, Polandâs Law and Justice (PiS) party, Spainâs Vox, the Finns party, and the Sweden Democrats.
âThe general sense is that what the far right wants is less European regulation,â said Sarah de Lange, a professor of political science at the University of Amsterdam. âLess regulation of agricultural products and practices, less regulation to promote sustainability. But they still want the subsidies.â
Much will depend on who turns out to vote. âThe tricky thing for the PVV is whether they are able to mobilise their voters: mostly, they donât vote,â said Sjoerd van Heck, a pollster at Ipsos I&O. âItâs a difficult message to give, of course, if you say you want to leave the EU but people should vote for it anyway. Turnout is a factor you shouldnât underestimate.â
Civi was considering casting her ballot for PVV. âBut,â she said, âI almost never vote.â
Voting will be carried out in earnest across the bloc between Thursday and Sunday, although Estonia has allowed people to cast their ballots from Monday. Polling stations open on Friday in Ireland, on Saturday in Latvia, Slovakia and Italy, and in the remaining countries on Sunday.