Andrius Kubilius, a member of the European parliament from Lithuania and a former prime minister, said “It’s very clear that the major concern of people is related to security and defence issues, and this is something different from what we were witnessing back in 2019, or even earlier, when issues like economy, like climate change, were prevailing.”

“So now, at least in Lithuania, we see very clearly defence, security, Ukraine – how to help Ukraine – and what to do with Putin’s regime, those are the issues which are prevailing in Lithuania.”

Security and defence issues should be the top priorities for the new parliament, he said.

Kubilius is a member of Homeland Union, part of the centre-right European People’s party.

Sandra Kalniete, a candidate for Latvia’s Unity party who has been a member of the European parliament since 2009, said in a phone interview that “security issues are the absolute priority.”

Voters in Latvia are focused on strengthening defence and military capabilities as well as bolstering border security, she said, adding that discussions are “completely different from the previous campaign” due to Russia’s war against Ukraine and Moscow’s belligerent rhetoric.

Some voters are concerned about cost of living issues, Kalniete noted, while stressing that people “understand that defence is a necessary burden for the state budget” and are “very understanding” of the need to continue supporting Ukraine.

A former foreign minister, Kalniete has been serving as a member of the European parliament’s foreign affairs committee.

The New Unity alliance, which is polling in second place in Latvia with around 13%, is part of the centre-right European People’s party.

Kalniete warned of radical right-wing forces that are pro-Russian and would undermine support for Ukraine, arguing that “we must preserve a centrist coalition as much as possible” but said that there is “no real clear picture yet” of what the political landscape will look like after the election.

We’ll now look at the campaigns in Latvia and Lithuania.

Like in Estonia, candidates in these two countries say that security and defence are on voters’ minds.

Marina Kaljurand, the lead candidate for Estonia’s Social Democratic party, said that when she’s out on the campaign trail “the number one” thing for voters is security and defence.

“I’m hearing more and more about security, about war in Ukraine, whether it’s a security problem for Estonia, what are the EU member states thinking about it, what is the European Parliament’s position,” she said.

But while there is largely a consensus among the mainstream Estonian parties on security issues, there are divisions on matters such as migration and green policies.

“The Social Democrats at the moment are the most serious green party in Estonia,” she said.

Kaljurand, a former foreign minister who has served in the European parliament since 2019, since she is opposed to the next parliament reopening green legislative files.

“Once we open them, they will not be so green,” she said.

There have been tensions within Renew over the past weeks over the decision of its Dutch member party VVD to enter a coalition with Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV party. Renew is expected to vote after the European elections on whether to expel VVD.

But Urmas Paet from Estonia’s Reform party said the VVD should stay.

“I think that at this very moment of time, we still should find the ways how to keep all of our members,” he said. “It’s very easy to slam the door,” he said, but in longer perspective and with strategic thinking” it is “better to understand, I would say, the nuances and differences in different European countries.”

“VVD has been an important part of the Renew group,” Paet said, stressing that he believes that when it comes to “the main principles and main values of this political party of VVD in the Netherlands, there are actually no changes.”

Urmas Paet, the lead candidate for Estonia’s Reform party and current MEP, said security is top of mind for voters in his country.

Paet, a former foreign minister, told the Guardian that the theme dominating the campaign in Estonia is “security, European security, and how much Europe is able to support Ukraine and also defend itself.”

“This is clearly the number one issue,” he said.

But he said there are also some domestic issues, “how much people support or don’t support the present Estonian government.”

The Reform party, which is led by Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, forms part of the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament.

In opinion polls, the Reform party has been hovering around 18%, coming in second after the Isamaa party, a member of the centre-right European People’s party.

Riho Terras, the lead candidate for Isamaa, a member of the centre-right European People’s party, said all parties in the country “have only one main topic: security, the war in Ukraine and the ability of Europe to defend itself.”

Isamaa is polling at around 25%, making it the most popular party in Estonia. Terras, a former commander of the Estonian defence forces, has been a member of the European parliament since 2020.

Besides the big challenge of security, two other issues discussed in the campaign are “competitiveness of Europe in the world market and how to increase competitiveness” and the Green Deal, he said.

The Green Deal is “the most controversial one,” Terras said, noting that “views are very different” on how to approach green policies.

It’s about “how to make sure normal citizens, normal farmers won’t be neglected,” he said, adding that his party wants to implement green policies “in a way people won’t suffer.”

Let’s move on to Estonia, where voters will elect 7 members of the European parliament on Sunday.

We’ll hear from three contenders: Riho Terras, the lead candidate for Isamaa, Urmas Paet, the lead candidate for the Reform party and Marina Kaljurand, the lead candidate for Estonia’s Social Democratic party.

A new opinion poll in France has put the far-right National Rally, with its lead candidate Jordan Bardella, at 33% among respondents who say they are certain to vote.

Emmanuel Macron’s coalition, with lead candidate Valérie Hayer, is down to 16%.

The study was conducted by the IPSOS institute, together with the CEVIPOF center, the Institut Montaigne, Fondation Jean Jaurès and Le Monde.

Speaking about the European parliament’s future political balance, Friis said:

I think there are lots of speculations about how the election results will be, whether Europe will take a sharp shift towards the more right-wing leaning policies – and I really fear what kind of consequences that can have, what kind of implications that can have for the green transition, for the renewable energy, for the Common Agricultural Policy, for the protection of the environment, which are some of my key issues in my campaign.

Radikale Venstre forms part of the Renew Europe in the European parliament. In recent weeks, a debate has emerged about whether parties that work together with the far-right on the national level – in particular the Dutch VVD – should be expelled from Renew.

“It’s my ambition to strengthen the Renew, and I think strengthening means ensuring the best possible election results across the member states on election day, and also keeping the Renew group a strong and important voice in the European Parliament, and I really hope that we can do that,” Friis said.

“I really prefer if the Renew parties can stick together, because there’s a lot of things that unite us. I see more things that unite us than what divides us,” she added.

Sigrid Friis, the 29-year old lead candidate for Radikale Venstre – the Danish Social Liberal party – said that for her voters, climate and defence are priorities.

“I would say that the top political issues would be the climate crisis and how to tackle the temperatures rising, and how to, maybe even within the European Union, create a new agricultural policy to help reduce our footprint on the planet,” she said in a phone interview. “It’s very important to a lot of the voters that I meet,” she said.

“Also security and defence is really a top priority for many of the Danes,” Friis said. “For the first time in decades, we have a war going on in the European continent, and I think that security and defence has really moved up on the voters’ priorities.”

Asked whether the situation in the Middle East is coming up in conversations with voters, Friis said concerns have focused on the impact on civilians in Gaza.

“How can it be that the EU has not found a way to protect the civilians better, to ensure aid is coming in,” she said.