The seven seats Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is tipped to win | Politics | News


Reform UK is on track to win seven seats at the General Election including Clacton, according to new polling.

The analysis and modelling by Survation suggests Nigel Farage will be victorious in the Essex constituency that he is contesting.

Lee Anderson is also on course to hold his Ashfield seat in Nottinghamshire.

The other five constituencies the rebranded Brexit Party is tipped to win are Exmouth and Exeter East, Great Yarmouth, Mid Leicestershire, North West Norfolk and South Suffolk.

The model puts Labour in the lead with 456 seats, with the Tories left with just 72.

The Survation study for campaign group Best For Britain used the multilevel with poststratification (MRP) technique to model results in constituencies.

Survation polled 42,269 people online or over the telephone between May 31 and June 13.

It is the first MRP analysis since Mr Farage returned to the political frontline as Reform’s leader.

In its interpretation of the findings, Survation said: “Since Farage’s announcement to take over as leader of Reform UK, we’ve seen a rise in their vote share in national polling, and now we are seeing how this can result in seat gains.

“Unsurprisingly, Reform are making significant gains in places where the Conservatives are losing the most, and are currently the leading party by vote share in seven seats.

“Reform are also currently performing better than the Conservatives in 59 seats.”

It is the latest poll boost for Reform after a YouGov survey last week put the rebranded Brexit Party one point ahead of the Tories.



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