There’s a reason Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign is sending a bus laden with spokespeople to Florida next week. And it’s not because she expects to win Florida.
Her plan is to draw national attention to that state’s abortion referendum this fall, which has created an uncommon political migraine for her chief opponent.
When Donald Trump officially switched his primary residence to Florida a few years back, he could hardly have predicted that move would land him in an unhelpful dilemma at an unwelcome moment.
It was laid bare this week when Trump was asked about his state’s referendum on the issue this November: Would he vote for Amendment 4, which would undo Florida’s six-week abortion ban and, in effect, restore the pre-2022 status quo, allowing abortion until fetal viability, and even afterward if deemed necessary by a doctor?
Trump appeared to tell NBC News he would support it, which triggered a swift backlash from elements of his base. Within 24 hours, he performed a backflip, telling Fox News he’d, in fact, vote no on the amendment.
In a close election, the abortion dilemma poses a distinct threat to Trump, forcing him to navigate between two perilous options: Alienate his base, or the average voter.
“He’s in a difficult position,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political scientist at the University of Central Florida who specializes in his state’s politics.
Trump has tried washing his hands of the abortion issue throughout this election campaign, warning it’s a potential vote-loser for Republicans, and saying each state can set its own policy.
What Trump actually said
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the religious right are aggressively fighting the amendment. But other Republicans support it: different polls suggest it could surpass the 60 per cent threshold required for enactment.
Within a day of his initial comments, Trump had contorted himself to please every position. He certainly sounded supportive of Amendment 4 on Thursday when an NBC reporter asked how he’d vote.
“I think the six-week [Florida ban] is too short. It has to be more time,” he replied.
When the reporter followed up, asking for clarity: Will you vote for the amendment? Trump replied: “I am going to be voting that we need more than six weeks.”
That set off a tremor exposing cracks in his coalition. Hours later, his campaign issued a statement insisting he hadn’t actually revealed how he would vote.
On Friday, he told Fox News the referendum question went too far, so he’d oppose it. He again criticized the six-week ban, but said he would vote to maintain it.
Democrats will recognize this feeling. For months, their party has been divided on issues related to the war in Gaza, and migration and the U.S. border, threatening their ability to turn out the full range of voters they’d need to win in November.
The shoe’s on the other foot here.
The backlash to Trump’s comments
Staunch conservatives fumed at Trump on Thursday.
“Abject evil,” is how far-right commentator Matt Walsh described the ballot measure, warning that Trump’s seeming support of it could cost him the election. He called Trump’s position “morally abominable” and “politically suicidal.”
“It totally demoralizes and alienates your base.”
A well-known conservative radio host, Erick Erickson, who for years has gone back and forth on supporting Trump, said that if he loses this election, this will be the reason why.
Ginna Cross, the head of a small Wisconsin anti-abortion non-profit, fumed in a string of posts on the social media platform X that no group had been more faithful to Republicans than evangelical, pro-life Christians, and they were now being thrown under the bus.
“I’ve never voted for a pro-choice candidate and don’t intend to start now,” she wrote. “Good luck to the GOP.”
That drew a rebuke from a well-known conservative organizer in her state, evangelical Ned Ryun, who said he would never stop working for Trump.
“He gave pro-lifers the greatest victory in the history of the movement, and yet people want to whine that he’s not perfect on the issue,” he wrote. “Stop whining. Get to work.”
That’s a reference to Trump having appointed three anti-abortion judges during his term, which led to Roe v. Wade being overturned, something Trump continues to take credit for when speaking to conservatives.
But he’s also warned that the party needs middle-ground abortion policies to appeal to moderates.
“He seems to want to have it both ways,” Jewett said, noting that Trump wants to take credit for the Supreme Court decision, but not the consequences.
Protesters gathered across the United States today to stand up for abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling on Roe v. Wade.
The complicated math for Trump
There’s no unifying answer to the abortion question — especially not in the Republican Party.
Many Republicans hold a liberal view: A 2022 Pew Research report found over one-third of Republicans want abortion to be legal in all, or almost all, cases.
Yet Trump can’t ignore the rest of the party. That same study said most Republicans would rather make abortion illegal in all, or almost all, cases.
This isn’t like other issues that divide Republicans, like, say, trade tariffs, or even supporting Ukraine.
For a sizable portion of the party, this is a non-negotiable, fundamental matter of conscience. Nearly one-quarter of Republicans call religion the most important thing in their lives.
That’s a small percentage of the overall electorate.
But anti-abortion voters can swing an election, said Michael Binder, faculty director of the public-opinion research lab at the University of North Florida.
To be clear: These voters are not stampeding to the Democrats. The risk for Trump, Binder says, is that they might deprive Republicans of two things: their votes, and their volunteer efforts.
“I could see them maybe staying home a little bit, maybe not being as excited, maybe not knocking on doors, maybe not making phone calls,” Binder said.
“Maybe they don’t vote for you, and that’s difficult to make up.”
So what can Trump do? Binder says he’s gotten out of sticky situations before, and might manage to do so again.
Jewett says his best play remains to avoid the issue entirely.
And that’s exactly why, on Sept. 3, a bus filled with Harris staffers, spokespeople, her campaign manager and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, will be in Florida — specifically, Palm Beach, where the former president’s residence is located: To make Trump’s dilemma unavoidable.
