Iran’s barrage of missiles against Israel on Tuesday night will definitely provoke a response. Unlike its earlier attack back in April, Tehran clearly intended this one to do significant damage to its arch enemy. And once again it failed.
Nonetheless the intent was there and Israel is highly unlikely to dismiss it with a token retaliatory strike again. This time they will mean business.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran will have to “pay” for its actions, a warning which will grab Iran’s attention. Israel’s intelligence services seem to have permeated the Iranian security service apparatus at every level, given the killing of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.
What are the likely targets for the Israeli response? Only their government and upper echelons of the IDF will know for sure, and no doubt plans were laid many months ago. We can, however, take a reasonably educated guess as to what Israel might seek to strike in retaliation.
First and foremost, and given Iran’s threat to retaliate against any Israeli retaliation as it were, I suspect that the IDF will seek to dismantle Iran’s capability to project military power.
This will no doubt include the bases from which the IRGC launched Tuesday’s barrage of rockets, and would most likely involve attacks on not just the launching sites themselves but also the command and control centres and even the refuelling facilities.
They would also seek to degrade and destroy Iran’s already limited capability to defend its own airspace, taking out its air defence systems and radars and eliminating its enemy’s elderly and obsolescent fleet of fighter jets. This should not present too much of a problem to the IDF’s fully modernised and professional air force.
We should not forget the IRGC’s naval presence, which consists mainly of fast patrol craft and minelayers which could seek to interdict military and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has history here and Israel (no doubt assisted by the USA and others) would seek to negate this threat.
Another prime target might be Iran’s bourgeoning nuclear capabilities, in particular its programme to develop its own nuclear weapons, which the Israelis regard as an existential threat. Sites like the Natanz and Fordow uranium enrichment facilities could be high-priority targets, given their importance to Iran’s nuclear programme.
Natanz has been central to Iran’s uranium enrichment efforts, and Fordow has been built deep underground to resist airstrikes. Damaging or destroying these facilities would significantly set back Iran’s nuclear progress.
Add to these the Isfahan and Arak nuclear complexes, essential for producing nuclear fuel and heavy water. Israel may aim to inflict heavy damage on these sites also in an effort to slow down or entirely halt Iran’s potential nuclear weapons development.
However, US President Joe Biden has just said that he does not support any potential Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, so this option may not be as straightforward as originally thought. Whether Prime Minister Netanyahu pays any attention to what Biden is saying is, of course, another matter altogether.
Possibly less likely, Israel may consider targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure, given its importance to the Iranian economy. Crippling Iran’s ability to export oil could put significant economic pressure on the regime, reducing its capacity to fund its military activities and support for regional proxies.
However, attacking oil infrastructure would likely have broader geopolitical ramifications, particularly in terms of disrupting global energy markets. Therefore, such strikes might be seen as a last resort, reserved for a situation where Israel seeks to deliver a decisive blow to Iran.
And finally it is likely that the policy of targeted assassinations of senior figures in Iran’s proxy organisations, the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’, will continue. In this the Israelis have been highly successful, and it’s possible they could extend their actions to senior IRGC personnel inside Iran itself.
These I believe are some of the more obvious choices for Israel’s retaliation against Iran. They may choose a combination of some or all of them in various combinations. Time will tell, but one thing is clear; for Israel, doing nothing is not an option.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
