Israel will hold memorials for the first anniversary of the October 7 attacks on Monday as the war it launched in response escalates on two fronts, with heavy bombing raids and mass evacuation orders issued in Lebanon and Gaza amid the growing possibility of a retaliatory airstrike against Iran.

As Israelis across the country prepared to mark one year since Hamas launched its devastating attack, a region that has spiralled into unprecedented crisis was on high alert. In Israel, authorities said they were on the lookout for attacks timed to coincide with the anniversary after a gunman opened fire on pedestrians in a central bus station in a city in the Negev desert, killing one and wounding 10 in the second attack in the last week.

In Iran, airports announced on Sunday afternoon that they would cancel all flights in a potential indication that Tehran expected Israeli jets could strike in a raid that could be targeted against Iranian military, oil, or even nuclear production. However, flight restrictions were lifted after “ensuring safe conditions”.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has vowed to retaliate against Iran for a recent ballistic missile strike on Israel but said he would choose the time and place. Washington has pleaded with him not to cross red lines that could send the region further into an all-out war.

Senior White House and Pentagon officials have been in consultations with Israel over its expected retaliatory strike. Joe Biden has urged Netanyahu not to target Iranian nuclear or oil production, potentially prompting retaliatory attacks from Iran against vulnerable Israeli infrastructure.

At the same time, the Biden administration looks increasingly unable to limit either Israel’s brinkmanship with Iran or its ground operations against the militias in Gaza and Lebanon that Tehran supports.

For the first time in months, Israel sent a column of tanks into northern Gaza and launched major operations there, surrounding Jabalia, the largest of strip’s eight historic refugee camps, as strikes hit a mosque and a school in attacks that killed 24 and wounded nearly 100, according to the local Hamas-controlled government.

The escalation in Gaza came after Israel’s attention largely had refocused toward its incursion into southern Lebanon, the largest military operation there since 2006. It appeared to defy analysts who said Israel would not attempt to fight a two-front war in both Lebanon and Gaza, as well as a tit-for-tat battle of airstrikes with Iran.

But on Sunday, Israel issued a new blanket evacuation order for all of the northern Gaza Strip, where hundreds of thousands of civilians remain, as a military spokesperson declared a “new phase of the war” against Hamas.

Local aid workers said the mosque, which was near al-Aqsa hospital in Deir al-Balah, had housed people who had been displaced in earlier bombing raids. The Israeli military claimed that the mosque had been a “Hamas command post”.

Netanyahu visited troops near the Lebanese border on Sunday for the first time and declared that Israel would “emerge victorious” in the conflict, as European leaders including Keir Starmer issued renewed calls for a ceasefire to halt the simultaneous wars in Lebanon and Gaza that have killed more than 42,000 people in the last year.

Israeli jets launched airstrikes on the Dahiyeh neighbourhood of southern Beirut in what Lebanon’s National News Agency called the “most severe” bombing of the war. Israeli attacks in the area, which is a stronghold for the Shia militia Hezbollah, have continued at such a high pace that rescue workers have been unable to access the area for days.

In Israel, one woman was killed and 10 people were wounded in the suspected terror attack at the central bus station in Be’er Sheva, a city in the Negev desert in southern Israel. The assailant, identified as Ahmad al-Uqbi, 29, was killed by police.

Photos and video posted on social media showed images of at least one person lying on the ground in a pool of blood next to a McDonald’s close to the bus station. In another video, gunshots could be heard as law enforcement officers ran through the station toward the shooting.

After the attack, Miri Regev, Israel’s transportation minister, wrote that the family of the suspected attacker should be deported from the country. “The time has come for a deterrent punishment that prevents attacks on Israeli territory,” she wrote on X.

As part of Monday’s commemorations for the Hamas attack, in which more than 1,200 people were killed and about 250 taken hostage, the president, Isaac Herzog, said he would conduct a three-day tour of the border communities along Gaza, beginning at the site of the Nova music festival near the Re’im kibbutz, where 364 people were killed. Israel’s ensuing invasion of Gaza has killed nearly 42,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, including at least 16,000 children.

As the anniversary of 7 October neared, Hamas on Sunday praised the attack as “glorious”.

“The crossing of the glorious 7 October shattered the illusions the enemy had created for itself, convincing the world and the region of its supposed superiority and capabilities,” Qatar-based Hamas member Khalil al-Hayya said in a video statement.

The anticipated retaliation against Iran follows a strike by Tehran that included more than 180 missiles, according to Israel, and managed to hit a crucial airbase more than 30 times.

Speaking on Sunday, Yoav Gallant, the Israeli minister of defence, said the bombing had not affected the air force’s ability to operate, and vowed that Israel would strike back against Iran at a time of its choosing.

“The Iranians did not touch the air force’s capabilities – no aircraft was damaged, no squadron was taken out of order,” Gallant said during a visit to the Nevatim airbase. He added: “Whoever thinks that a mere attempt to harm us will deter us from taking action should take a look at [Israel’s campaigns] in Gaza and Beirut.”

Meanwhile, Netanyahu visited troops from the 36th division, one of two divisions sent there for combat operations, along the Lebanese border. In remarks, the prime minister said he wished to “extend my deepest condolences to the families of our heroes who fell today in Lebanon”.

Israel has said dozens of its soldiers have been injured in Lebanon in the last week of combat, while Hezbollah claimed to have killed 20 soldiers over this weekend. “We’re in the heat of a gruelling war against Iran’s axis of evil, aimed at destroying us,” Netanyahu said. “That will not happen, because we shall stand together, and with God’s help, we shall emerge victorious together.”

Iran’s foreign minister on Saturday warned that Tehran would retaliate if attacked by Israel. “Our reaction to any attack by the Zionist regime is completely clear,” Abbas Araghchi told reporters during a trip to Syria. “For every action, there will be a proportional and similar reaction from Iran, and even stronger.”