Kim Leadbeater, the Labour MP introducing the private member’s bill to legalise assisted dying, has invited the archbishop of Canterbury to meet her after he described a change in the law as dangerous, Harriet Sherwood reports.

As mentioned earlier, there is still a lot of budget talk around – as there will be for the next fortnight. Here are three articles worth reading.

• Steven Swinford, Oliver Wright and Patrick Maguire in the Times splash say Rachel Reeves will raise capital gains tax – but not for second homes. They report:

The Times has been told that capital gains on profits from the sale of shares, which is currently levied at a higher rate of 20 per cent, is likely to rise by “several percentage points” …

As well as raising capital gains on share profits, Reeves is also expected to end some reliefs in the current regime to increase potential revenues as she seeks to repair the public finances and avoid a return to austerity.

One government source suggested that revenues from increasing capital gains tax would be in the “low billions”.

The chancellor will leave the rate of capital gains tax on the sale of second homes and buy-to-let properties untouched amid concerns that increasing it would cost money.

• Tom Baldwin in the Spectator says the Keir Starmer is becoming more focused on explaining what the government will do to improve things for people and a budget-related document will be published helping with this. He says:

The renewed focus is on Rachel Reeves’s first Budget on 30 October. ‘We know it will be a fight and it’s important we pick the right one,’ said one senior aide. Although everyone within Downing Street to whom I’ve spoken in recent days insists that the missions are not being abandoned, that there is a ‘narrowing, focusing and tightening’ around a series of ‘tangible and deliverable goals for working people’. These will be ‘staging posts that tell a story to the country about where we want to be in two, three and four years’ time’.

Starmer is understood to be working on a document with Reeves and Pat McFadden at the Cabinet Office using a mass of polling evidence commissioned by [chief of staff Morgan] McSweeney. Provisionally titled ‘Priorities for Change’, this is expected to be published before the budget so that identifiable connections between the missions run through what the Treasury decides to do.

A number of departments have still been unable to agree with the Treasury the scale of cuts they will be expected to deliver in the next two years, despite discussions stretching back to July.

Close of play on Wednesday was meant to be the deadline for all major measures agreed for the budget to be sent to the spending watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility.

After this moment, only small changes are meant to be possible in the budget and spending review for the financial year beginning next April.

Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leadership candidate, has said that she would offer JK Rowling a peerage if she became party leader. As equalities minister Badenoch was instrumental in getting the UK government to block the Scottish parliament’s gender recognition reform bill, which would have drastically simplified the process for trans people wanting to obtain a gender recognition certificate confirming their change of gender. JK Rowling, the author, was one of the leading gender critical feminists opposing the change, and she and Badenoch became allies in opposing the extension of trans rights. They say they are defending sex-based rights.

As the Times reports, asked if she would offer Rowling a peerage in an interview with Talk TV, Badenoch replied:

I would. I don’t know whether she would take it, but I certainly would give her a peerage.

She also said that people like her and Rowling had been “attacked relentlessly by all sorts of oddballs and bad people” because of their views on sex and gender.

Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, was doing a media round this morning to highlight the news that primary schools in England can now bid for government money to set up nurseries.

The Department for Education says in a news release:

Primary schools can now apply for up to £150,000 of £15 million capital funding, with the first stage of the plan set to support up to 300 new or expanded nurseries across England.

This comes as 321,462 additional children are now accessing 15 hours of government-funded early education per week, since the government delivered on the promises made to parents for the second phase of the childcare rollout last month.

Under plans first announced by the last government, working parents with children aged 9-months or older were eligible for 15 hours of free nursery care per week from September this year. It is due to rise to 30 hours from September next year.

But there is concern there are not enough places to meet the demand. Phillipson said in interviews this morning today’s announcement would help to expand capacity.

She also said that in some parts of the country the shortage was “very stark”. She told the Today programme:

We’re also publishing more information about where there are gaps at a local level, so that providers have got a better sense of where the gaps are, so that they can look to create more capacity in those areas where we have the fewest places, and in some parts of the country it’s very stark. You know, for every child, you know there is, there is a real gap.

In its news release about these figures the DfE says:

According to the Department for Education’s latest projections, around 70,000 additional places and 35,000 early years educators will still be needed to deliver the expansion to 30 hours next September, with some of the most disadvantaged areas in need of the largest uplifts.

Published for the first time, the projections show that around half of local areas need to increase their capacity by between 10% and 20% to meet demand for September. Some need an uplift of more than 20% – with areas that see traditionally lower household incomes including Northumberland, Plymouth and Rotherham all in this group.

That’s why the government is taking action now, and providing schools, private providers and local authorities a clear picture of the department’s understanding of demand, and where there are gaps in supply.

Arriving at the meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels, John Healey, the defence secretary, has confirmed that Britain is putting thousands of troops on standby to deploy to Estonia’s border with Russia. PA Media says:

Soldiers in the army’s 4th Brigade will be held at “high readiness” in order to defend Nato’s eastern flank with Russia, under a new co-operation agreement Healey will sign with his Estonian counterpart …

Some 1,000 British troops are already deployed in Estonia. If deployed, 4th Brigade troops – who are specialists in operating in Estonia’s Baltic terrain – could be sent there alongside helicopters and rocket launchers.

The 4th Brigade, based at Bourlon Barracks, North Yorkshire, would be deployed within 10 days if called up to travel to Estonia under the plans.

The army’s most advance tanks, the Challenger 3, as well as the Boxer armoured vehicle, could also be deployed in Estonia in future years.

Army brigades differ in size, but as many as 5,000 troops could be placed on standby under the pact, which will begin in July 2025.

Michael Gove, the former Tory cabinet minister who is now editor of the Spectator, has said that having Robert Jenrick as leader might hold the Tories back because he looks like a “Tory boy”.

Gove has long been a strong supporter of Kemi Badenoch, who worked for him as a junior minister in the communities department, and so it is not surprising that, when asked about both candidates in an interview for the Today programme’s podcast, he chose to praise her more than Jenrick.

But Gove would not confirm that he was voting for Badenoch, claiming that the Spectator was more interested in backing causes than candidates, and that his personal endorsement might be counter-productive.

Asked about the candidates, he said they were both friends of his. He went on:

Robert’s strengths are diligence, rigour, hunger. He is someone who has focused in on some of the big questions that have been the Conservative party’s internal conversation. And he has answers; you may not like them, but he has precise and specific solutions.

Now, I think one of Robert’s weaknesses, and I speak as someone who has the same déformation professionnelle, he looks like a typical Tory politician.

When it was put to him that he was accusing Jenrick of being a “Tory boy”, Gove went on:

So am I. It’s a stain that I bear. And given the strength of feeling against Tory boys expressed at the last general election, that’s a challenge.

Asked about Badenoch, he said:

I’m very fond of Kemi because at a critical moment when I was running for the leadership in 2019 she was conspicuously brave in my defence, when she didn’t need to be. And courage is Kemi’s hallmark.

So one of the criticisms directed at her is that she’s too willing to get involved in a scrap. I actually think it is a virtue.

Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, was on the media round on behalf of No 10 this morning. In an interview on the Today programme, asked if she was one of the cabinet ministers who have written to the PM complaining about their departmental spending allocation in the budget, she refused to say. She replied:

There are lots of conversations happening right now across government, between the chancellor, with members of the cabinet, as you would expect in the usual way as part of the budget process.

Asked if the education budget was protected, she replied:

Education is always a priority for Labour governments.

What I’d say to you is you don’t have too long to wait to hear the chancellor announce her budget in just under a fortnight, so I’m afraid everyone’s going to have to wait until 30 October to see exactly what’s in the budget.

According to the Times, the ministers who have written to the PM include Angela Rayner, the deputy PM and housing secretary, Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, and Louise Haigh, the transport secretary. In their story, Oliver Wright, Patrick Maguire and Steven Swinford say:

Sources said there was concern “right across the cabinet”, and particularly in departments whose spending was “unprotected” …

A senior Treasury source said that ministers had not understood the scale of the challenge facing Reeves. “They’re using a classic trade union negotiating tactic,” the source said. “But we don’t have any spare cash lying around to give them. This is only phase one of the spending review — as soon as the budget is over, we’re going to have to do this all over again.”

Allies of the chancellor admitted that her decision to prioritise long-term investment over day-to-day spending in the budget had alienated colleagues. “Investment is a key part of this budget and is in the top three things we can actually deliver before the next election,” a source said.

Good morning. Members of the Conservative party have started getting their ballot papers for the leadership election, and this evening Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick will take part in what may be the only TV event of this stage of the contest – a hustings on GB News starting at 7pm. They won’t go head to head, but they each take questions for an hour. We will be covering it live (although a colleague will be at the helm, not me).

Badenoch remains the bookmakers’ favourite, but Jenrick gets a boost today from Electoral Calculus polling, reported in the Telegraph, suggesting that the Tories would do better with him as leader. In his write-up, Charles Hymas says:

Mr Jenrick, the former immigration minister, would win 50 extra seats if he was leader of the Tories compared with 30 seats that would be gained if Kemi Badenoch, his rival for the top job, was in charge of the party, according to the poll of nearly 6,300 people by Electoral Calculus …

Under Mr Jenrick, the Conservatives would increase their number of seats from 121 to 178, with Labour falling from 412 to 311, the Liberal Democrats dropping from 72 to 58 and Reform rising from five to 24. That would place Labour 14 seats short of a majority.

Under Mrs Badenoch, the Conservatives would increase their number of seats from 121 to 151, while Labour would fall from 412 to 332, the Lib Dems would dip from 72 to 63 and Reform rise from five to 25. That would see Labour in government with a 14-seat majority.

This is interesting, but only up to a point, for two reasons. First, the performance gap between Jenrick and Badenoch, according to these figures, and in truth no one can be sure who would be best for the Tories because voters don’t know a huge amount about either of them, and it is impossible to know for sure how they would perform as leaders. And, second, Conservative members aren’t always very interested in picking the candidate most popular with the electorate at large (which is partly why things started going wrong for them).

I will post more on the Tories as the day goes on. Apart from the GB News hustings, the diary is relatively light today, but there is still a lot of talk about the budget. As Eleni Courea reports, some cabinet ministers have been writing to Keir Starmer complaining about the cuts they are being asked to implement.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: John Healey, the defence secretary, attends a meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels.

9.30am: Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

9.30am: The Office for National Statistics publishes figures on the disability pay gap.

9.30am: The Department for Education publishes figures on pupil absences in England.

10.30am: Lucy Powell, leader of the Commons, takes questions on next week’s Commons business.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

7pm: Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick take part in a leadership hustings on GB News. They will be questioned by party members, separately, with Christopher Hope, the GB News political editor, presenting.

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