The Labour Government’s plans to scrap the VAT exemption for private schools will see a number of schools close in Scotland, opponents to the policy have claimed.
Some also say that house prices in catchment areas for other private schools will soar.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hopes to raise £1.7billion with the policy.
Parents who have sent their kids to private schools could face increased costs as some schools look to pass the hit onto parents by increasing fees.
Scottish law firm Lindsays has now warned that there could be a “domino effect” in Scotland as a result of the VAT change.
They told the Scotsman that “some people will find the outcomes positive, and some will find them negative,” and that “this is a policy intervention which will have a very long and very unpredictable tail.”
Kilgraston in Perthshire and Cedars in Greenock are two private schools that have already closed since Labou’s plans were announced.
Helen Kidd, a Lindsays partner, added: “We are expecting that some Scottish independent schools will experience a downsizing of their operations, and sadly it would not be a surprise if we witnessed more closures of some of the smaller specialist schools.
”Although the less price-sensitive institutions may be able to largely withstand the change, the majority of schools in areas where there are good state alternatives are already experiencing a reduction in their rolls, which will most likely lead to a reduction in turnover and profitability, forcing schools to consider even leaner models of operation.
“Some people will find this outcome positive, and some negative, depending on their politics, but either way a downsizing is the likely outcome, and it will inevitably trigger a domino effect with unintended consequences. This is a policy intervention which could have a very long and unpredictable tail.”
The Scottish capital, Edinburgh, is the home to the most private school-attending children.
Andrew Diamond, Lindsay Partner, issued a warning about price houses.
He said: “House prices in Edinburgh, in particular, have long been heavily influenced by secondary school catchment areas, with two otherwise identical houses able to command significantly different sums depending on the perceived quality of the state school.
“With the expected increase in the number of children moving from the independent to the state sector – whether in the end that is a trickle or a wave – it would be no surprise to see something of a chase for homes in the most sought-after catchment areas.”
The Scottish Tories have criticised the Government in Westminster, saying the comments from Lindsay partners should be a “wake-up call.”
Miles Briggs, Education Spokesman for the Scottish Tories, said: “They are failing to show any common sense in relation to this policy which is threatening to close many schools in the independent sector.
“Many of these schools support pupils with complex additional support needs who must be given access to the education they need. We warned them that this would happen, yet still they are refusing to listen. These closures will only put even greater pressure on state schools which are completely overwhelmed due to years of sustained SNP cuts.”
“Labour ministers should do the right thing, listen to this expert advice, and reverse this decision which will have deeply damaging consequences on Scotland’s education system.”
A UK government spokesperson said: “We want to ensure all children have the best chance in life to succeed. Ending tax breaks on private schools will help to raise the revenue needed to fund our education priorities for next year.”
