In the back corner of his small-town biker bar, Ty Poole gestures at a spot where he made what proved to be, in retrospect, a wise decision.

That’s where he persuaded his group of buddies to cancel plans to ride down to Washington for Jan. 6, 2021, the day the Capitol was stormed.

That choice kept them out of harm’s way. Poole believes that if they had gone, they would have been arrested, injured, or injured others.

Now, four years later, he’s feeling doubly vindicated. Now Poole is convinced his candidate, Donald Trump, will return to power anyway, the normal way: At the ballot box.

There’s no doubt in his mind. There was a moment of apprehension this summer, Poole says, as Kamala Harris enjoyed an initial burst of enthusiasm, but his worries have subsided. He’s now certain Trump will win.

“I am. More and more so,” Poole said in his bar in Carbon County, about 160 kilometres from Philadelphia.

“I’m seeing it like it was in 2016.”

His own history with Trump began eight years ago, when Poole and his fellow bikers provided security at rallies, before Trump got Secret Service protection.

He now senses a similar energy again, as a party volunteer, and as a participant in events like a recent town hall where he talked to Trump.

Reasons for Trump optimism

Trump’s fans have reason for optimism: election forecasters 538.com, Nate Silver and The Economist now all have Trump as a slight favourite, as do gambling sites. That’s amid a subtle uptick in national and state polls, strong voter-registration numbers for Republicans, and a historically good start to early voting for them in Nevada. Big investors are now steering cash to stocks expected to benefit from Trump policies, the Wall Street Journal reports.

It’s still a close race, as Silver himself cautions. Democrats can find glimmers of hope in bits of early-vote data and national polls.

Yet the confidence level is stratospheric in this area of Pennsylvania, which has undergone a drastic rightward shift in the Trump years.

Like many in this area, Bob Yevak voted for Barack Obama. When asked why he switched, the businessman, community volunteer, and mayoral candidate mentions a few issues – but, really, he likes the way Trump talks.

Now he’s such a committed supporter he has a photo of Trump surviving an assassination attempt fluttering on a flag outside his auto-body shop. 

“He’s going to win with a Reagan-style landslide,” Yevak said in his garage in nearby Luzerne County, referring to the 49-state thumping of 1984.

“More than 40 states – I really believe that.”

There is, in his view, a zero per cent chance Trump loses this election. Literally, none. He doesn’t believe polls showing a paper-thin race.

“You’d have to be stupid,” Yevak says, to vote now for his longtime party, accusing Democrats of mismanaging the southern border, inflation, and global security.

The view from a formerly blue area

This area has, like Yevak himself, undergone a political realignment. It voted Democratic until 2012, then kept shifting right, joining the country’s roughly 2,500 less-populated counties where Trump dominates, versus the Democrats’ 500 urban-and-suburban strongholds.

In a local Republican office, a number of party volunteers used to be Democrats. When asked what changed, they don’t pinpoint one single reason.

A couple mention trade, as the area lost its textile industry after NAFTA. Some mention transgender issues. One refers to Supreme Court cases involving same-sex marriage and a wedding-cake maker. Another mentioned nostalgia – he said Trump’s slogan, “Make America Great Again,” tapped into a generalized longing for a bygone era, of patriotism, prayer, and everyone reciting the Pledge of Allegiance at school.

Here’s what all seven people in that office during CBC News’s visit one recent afternoon agreed upon: Rock-solid certainty Trump will win.

They insist they’ve been inundated with visitors requesting Trump signs, having handed out more than usual, at least 1,500. “[It’s] a constant parade. In and out. In and out,” says the party’s county chair, Lee Becker, who predicts Trump will do even better here than 2020.

And if he doesn’t? There’s only one explanation, several said. “Depends on the cheating,” said Darin Dotter, a party officer in Carbon County.

“The cheating,” concurred Alicia Kupec, another volunteer. 

This idea resurfaces again, and again, in conversation not only with regular voters but also with members of the party organization who insist Trump cannot legitimately lose this election.

This certainty carries a dark undercurrent

It’s consistent with Trump’s own rhetoric and it foreshadows the turmoil that could follow if he under-performs the current forecasts, and loses.

That’s how the 2020 election aftermath unfolded: he delegitimized the result, his supporters agreed, and they mounted a pressure campaign to derail certification.

By the time that plan failed on Jan. 6, 2021, the Capitol had been attacked, and election officials across the country had been deluged with death threats.

“It was kind of a frightening time,” said Marian Moskowitz, a Democrat who was a member of the electoral college in Pennsylvania four years ago.

She said the threats forced electors to meet at a secret location. On Dec. 14, 2020, she parked her car in a garage, was picked up in a van, and was transported to the site where she helped certify Joe Biden’s win in Pennsylvania.

Once again, she insists her party has a shot at victory.

Her optimism stems, in part, from where she sits: She’s a county official in a place that has undergone the exact opposite political transformation, away from Republicans.

Her county is the wealthiest in Pennsylvania, and close to Philadelphia, and, in the Trump era, has seen the biggest swing toward Democrats of any of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties.

She predicts the recent pattern will continue: More college-educated voters, especially women, will keep shifting to the Democrats in places like Chester County, where she lives.

Over coffee on the brick-colonial main street of quaint Kennett Square, she says she’s personally spoken to 40 or 50 Republican women who won’t support Trump. 

“It’s not easy for them to say they’re voting Democratic – but they are,” Moskowitz said.

“They’re standing up everywhere.”

What if Harris wins?

Democrats admit they’d rather be posting better party registration numbers: Republicans have had their best year in memory, with a whopping 52 per cent edge among Pennsylvania voters who switched their registration from one party to another.

But they insist that stat can be misleading. For starters, Democrats still hold an edge in Pennsylvania’s total registrations. Also, Moskowitz says, some of those registered Republicans are the women voting for Harris.

“[I’ve been asked], ‘Do I have to change my registration to help the Democrats?’ And I say, ‘No – absolutely not!’ We hope you all have a party someday you can go back to,'” she said. 

There are other reasons for optimism if you’re a Democrat – women are casting way more advance ballots than men in some swing states; in Pennsylvania, Democrats are not only requesting more mail ballots but returning them faster.

What would happen if Kamala Harris defies the forecasts, and wins this election? 

Americans appear braced for a volatile election aftermath, with a high potential for turbulence in the 11 weeks until inauguration day, Jan. 20, 2025.

Three-quarters of Americans doubt Trump would concede defeat if he loses, according to a Pew survey; only one-quarter said the same about Harris.

Another poll found one-third of Republicans said American patriots might need to use violence to save the country.

“If [Trump] loses that’s all gonna come out bad,” said Yevak, who believes only cheating could deprive his candidate of victory.

In a bellwether county an hour east, outside an early-voting site, Pennsylvania voter Nataley Perry, predicted trouble after Nov. 5 – no matter who wins.

She’s another staunch Trump supporter who insists he can’t lose a fair election. Perry pegged Trump’s likelihood of victory in unconditional terms: “100 per cent,” said the woman, who runs an assisted-living facility for Pennsylvania seniors.

If he wins, she expects his opponents to riot in cities. If he loses, she said, Republicans wouldn’t riot like Democrats. They’d do something else, she said.

“There could be a civil war again. I really have no idea what to expect, but something’s going to happen,” said the resident of Monroe County, as she cast a mail ballot. 

“I don’t think that the majority of America, if they really, truly voted for Trump, will be quiet, stay silent, at this point.”