The streets of Lashio, a once bustling city in north-eastern Myanmar, are quieter than usual. Schools are shut, except for those run by volunteers from the pro-democracy resistance in the community. Months of airstrikes have left destruction. Even though the fighting has stopped, electricity is still not running properly. Instead, residents rely on solar power to charge their phones, and firewood and charcoal to cook.

“We saw a lot of civilians who died during the battle [in those days]. We saw them on the streets, on the lanes, some of the bodies were decayed and some of them were freshly dead. Some died in their homes,” said Leo*, a 40-year-old driver, whose family spent months living with constant bombardments by the military, running to hide in the darkness of a homemade bunker each time jet fighters came.

When Leo and his family were able to finally go outside again, the country’s widely loathed junta was, at least, gone. The city was at the centre of one of the military’s most humiliating defeats when it fell to an ethnic armed group, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in August. Despite months of airstrikes, the military failed to retake the city. Together with a series of other losses across the country, it gave a major morale boost to the wider movement to overthrow the military.

It marked the first loss of one of its 14 regional military commands, as well as the loss of a strategically important city on the border with China. In the aftermath, there was such anger among pro-military figures, demands grew for the resignation of junta chief Min Aung Hlaing.

‘People will resist’

The military, which seized power in a coup in 2021, provoking an armed resistance, has now lost control of swathes of the country. And as the conflict enters its fifth year, it is on the brink of further losses, despite neighbouring China lending it greater support in an apparent attempt to stave off its ultimate collapse.

The military faces opposition from a patchwork of groups: people’s defence forces, which formed after the coup to fight for the return of democracy, and ethnic armed organisations, which have long fought for independence. The size of these groups, their specific goals and the extent to which they are coordinated varies.

Across the country, 95 towns have now fallen to the various opposition groups, according to Myanmar Peace Monitor. Last year, in northern Kachin state, more than 200 military bases and 14 towns were lost, including the rare-earth mining hubs of Chipwi and Pangwa town. In the west, almost all of Rakhine state, including the western regional command, fell. In the central Sagaing region, people’s defence forces captured Kawlin and Pinlebu, crucial towns needed to transport supplies to frontline areas.

Estimates, including a study commissioned by the BBC, suggest the military controls only 21% of the country’s territory, though it still holds the key, densely populated cities.

Jason Tower, country director for the Burma program at United States Institute of Peace, said that while the Myanmar military was trying to maintain its power using airstrikes and other types of abuses, it was likely the next year would see “the continued weakening and collapse of the military”, with the junta losing more territory and its opponents coordinating more effectively.

The military has promised elections this year, something its ally China is endorsing. But it is unclear how it will implement these given how much of the country is controlled by rival groups. “The regime will have to use significant violence to secure areas where it wants polling to take place, and we know that many people will resist including violently,” said Richard Horsey, Myanmar adviser to Crisis Group.

China’s shifting response

When Lashio fell last year, there was speculation opposition groups might move down towards the centre of the country and threaten the major city Mandalay, a potential stepping stone towards the capital Naypyidaw.

It was this that prompted a shift in China’s response to Myanmar. China, which has deep ties with both northern armed groups as well as being an ally of the military, had earlier approved of the MNDAA’s offensives, after growing tired of the junta’s failure to stop criminal scam compounds from growing on its border. But the MNDAA appeared to be pushing much further than China had anticipated, say analysts. Beijing responded by closing its border crossing and stopping the flow of resources to ethnic armed groups in northern Shan State.

“While [China] had no love for the military regime, it was even more cautious about a disorderly collapse of power in Naypyidaw because it didn’t know what would come next,” said Horsey. The possibility of greater chaos, or of a pro-western government taking control, could pose a threat to China’s vast investments in the country.

Yet even under such pressure, Lashio remains under the control of the MNDAA. China has demanded the group hand the territory back to the military, and this month announced a ceasefire between the two sides. The details of the agreement are unclear.

In Lashio, people are returning to the city. A military curfew has been removed, and residents say they no longer live in fear of night-time visits by soldiers, who would demand to know of any visitors staying overnight at their property. But there are other concerns, including the fear of forced conscription by the MNDAA, something it has denied. There are also concerns over due process, as the MNDAA is ruling under martial law. It has carried out executions in another city it controls, Laukkai, also in northern Shan, following a public trial.

The struggle to survive

Voicing criticism of the MNDAA is sensitive. “I don’t like the rule of MNDAA that much,” says Khin Lay*, 24. “But I do not dare to say that I don’t like.”

All she wants is peace, she says. The fighting last year began on 2 July, the day she gave birth. “I remember the date exactly,” she says. “I gave birth in the morning around 10.30 and, then I heard the fighting at night at 9.30. The hospital building reverberated with the sound of artillery fire.”

She fled with her seven day-old baby, and 20-month-old girl, crammed on to a Toyota Alphard van with 14 others. The traffic was so intense as residents fled that what should have been a two and a half hour journey took 30 hours. By the evening they had run out of drinking water.

“My baby is so lucky that he did not die on the way,” she said. A three-month-old baby died while his mother was carrying him on a motorbike.

She returned to Lashio in January because vaccines for her babies had run out at the hospital in the nearby town of Muse.

She is focused on staying strong for her children, and trying to earn enough money so that she can afford to protect them from the worst of the conflict, but the local economy has been severely affected. “If I were lucky enough to earn a lot of income and if my business were doing well, I would get passports, go abroad, and settle there,” she said. “I would return after our country gains independence and becomes peaceful. This is just my imagination, and I’m not sure whether it’s possible or not.”

The border with China has now been partly reopened, but for months supplies of anything from household goods and medicines to construction material, and fuel were completely cut off, causing the cost of living to soar to twice that of the major cities, Yangon and Mandalay. A litre of petrol is 7,500 kyats ($3.60), and a bag of rice is 290,000 kyats ($138).

People have turned to money lending, or selling valuables to survive. “My nephew sells dry groceries and I buy from him on credit. I have borrowed some money from my sister. I sold my husband’s ring a few days ago,” says Daw Thein*, 47. Her husband had been working as a caddie at a golf club in the city, until they were forced to flee the fighting in Lashio last July.

Across Myanmar, the conflict has caused poverty rates to soar, with half of the population living below the poverty line and a further one third barely above it. The UN has warned of imminent risk of famine in western Rakhine state, as fierce conflict and trade blockades have led to total economic collapse. Health and education systems have been put under severe strain, and the introduction of mandatory conscription by the military has caused an exodus of young people from the cities. Research by the United Nations Development Programme shows the country is falling into darkness, with less than half the population having access to electricity.

In Lashio, a pause in military airstrikes, and the clout of the MNDAA has allowed the administration to recover services such as electricity, at least partly. In other areas of the country, especially towns in central Myanmar that are now run by newer groups or subject to prolonged bombardments, setting up new administrations has been slower.

The independent outlet Myanmar Now reported the MNDAA had agreed to give Lashio back to the military by June. The MNDAA has denied this, however, and with the military facing pressure on frontlines across the country, it appears a distant prospect.

The military is now facing the possibility of more losses in Rakhine and Kachin state. Support offered by China has proved useful, but it has not saved the military and Beijing will expect concessions in return, say analysts.

Even after months spent under bombardment Leo said he is determined the military’s opponents should continue. “I don’t want [the struggle] to stop just because of the pressures from powerful foreign countries,” he said. After overthrowing the Myanmar military, all groups will “unite as one with the people and work together to bring development of our country”.

*Names have been changed throughout to protect identities