Badenoch is under pressure from senior Tories to do a deal with Nigel Farage and Reform UK.
The Conservative leader has ruled out a “merger” with Reform but colleagues fear failure to “unite the right” will allow Labour to win a second election victory even if voters turn firmly against Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former Business Secretary, warned Labour could score another victory “if the right remains split” and called for the two parties to forge a “pact”.
He highlighted a survey by YouGov which found 25% of voters would back Reform if a poll was held tomorrow, with 24% ready to vote Labour and 21% backing the Tories.
Sir Jacob said: “The two party system is under strain, with a new YouGov poll showing Reform in the lead for the first time and the Tories in third place.”
He pointed out that Labour had won a massive majority in the 2024 election despite receiving “a surprisingly small share of the vote”.
The Tory grandee warned: “So what’s the solution? In a first past the post electoral system, each wing of politics needs to unite, otherwise it will lose.
“If we enter the next election in this three horse race without a pact, we may well see Labour keep its majority, and just look how badly they’re governing.”
He told GB News: “It’s the one outcome neither the Tories nor Reform want.”
Ms Badenoch recently ruled out a merger with Reform, saying: “Nigel Farage says he wants to destroy the Conservative Party. Why on earth would we merge with that?”
However other options would include the two parties agreeing not to stand candidates against each other in winnable seats across the country, in an echo of the “coupon election” of 1918. This featured a pact between the Tories and a Liberal faction led by David Lloyd George, with candidates receiving a letter known as a coupon signed by leaders of both parties, and was a huge success.
Reform hopes to make gains in local elections in May 1 but party strategists believe they could emerge as the clear opposition to the Labour government next year if they come first in elections for the Welsh Parliament and succeed in beating the Conservatives in elections in Scotland.
Many of the seats Nigel Farage’s party will be targeting at the next election are currently held by Labour, including Ashton-under-Lyne, where the MP is Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, and Stalybridge and Hyde, currently represented by Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds.
Dozens of Labour MPs have set up an internal group to focus on the threat to push Chancellor Rachel Reeves to invest more funding in the north, where they fear Reform could make gains.
The informal caucus, which is understood to have been meeting on a regular basis in Parliament, includes members from seats where Reform came second in 2024’s general election.
One red-wall MP who is a member of the group pointed to the Chancellor’s announcement of funding for transport links between Oxford and Cambridge as well as backing for the expansion of Heathrow Airport.
They said: “That has no effect whatsoever on the red wall. It’s not going to create growth in the forgotten areas where Reform are more likely to be second.”
