Germans are heading to the polls to choose a new government in an election dominated by migration, a stagnating economy, and Germany’s role in the Ukraine war following Donald Trump’s election in the US.

The centre-right opposition is currently favoured to win, while polls suggest Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to achieve the best result for a far-right party since WW2.

As the European Union’s most populous country and a key NATO member, Germany will play a crucial role in shaping the continent’s response to future challenges, including the Trump administration’s confrontational foreign and trade policies. Germany has been a significant supplier of weapons to Ukraine, second only to the US.

The top contenders, conservative front-runner Friedrich Merz and incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats, cast their votes in different parts of the country on Sunday morning. The Green Party, led by outgoing Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, is also vying for the top spot but trails behind Scholz’s party in the polls.

Merz has promised “stability instead of chaos” following the collapse of Scholz’s three-party coalition, which was marked by protracted internal disputes, including disagreements over how to revitalise the economy. However, it remains uncertain whether the conservative leader, if victorious, will be able to form a stable government that performs significantly better. Merz hopes for a two-party coalition but may require a third partner to establish a government.

Despite support for the AfD—currently tipped for second place—all other parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the Right-wing party, meaning there is little chance of leader Alice Weidel becoming the next chancellor.

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