Mexico appears to be taking a two-track approach to threats from the Trump administration: giving them what they want in terms of cracking down on fentanyl-trafficking cartels, while firing a shot across their bows when it comes to interfering directly in Mexico.

And that approach appears to have the support of Mexicans. Polls suggest President Claudia Sheinbaum enjoys about 80 per cent approval, with many of those polled citing her handling of the Trump administration.

Sheinbaum has cultivated a calm, reasonable but firm tone, and makes a point of never discussing U.S. demands on Mexico without also mentioning Mexico’s grievances with the U.S., particularly the smuggling of U.S. arms into Mexico.

On Friday, Sheinbaum sent a bill to Congress that would amend the Mexican Constitution to bring in severe punishments for anyone who violates Mexican sovereignty — a clear warning to U.S. Republicans who have openly called for Washington to attack Mexican cartels without seeking Mexico’s permission.

Last week, the U.S. designated six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. Canada did the same, for five of the six.

“They can designate them,” said Sheinbaum on Monday, “but that doesn’t give a pretext for intervention in Mexico. That’s what we’re saying with this constitutional reform: that just because you designate them in this way, that doesn’t give you the right to intervene in our country.”

Markets give thumbs up

Juan Carlos Baker was a key member of Mexico’s team for the renegotiation of NAFTA during the first Trump administration, when he served as deputy minister of trade.

He says Sheinbaum’s approach has so far been ratified by the markets. Mexico’s stock market index is up seven per cent since Trump’s inauguration, while U.S. indexes have recently declined.

“The [peso] exchange rate has not skyrocketed,” said Baker. “So the markets are interpreting that her handling of the situation so far has been prudent.”

Sheinbaum’s approach may not be enough to prevent tariffs, he told CBC News, but it has combined a staunch defence of Mexico’s positions with an effective cartel crackdown that most Mexicans wanted to see anyway.

“I think that the government recognizes that some of the claims or some of the accusations that President Trump has been making are difficult to reject,” he said.

“Mexicans in different regions around the country see this situation with violence and insecurity on a daily basis. So claiming that doesn’t exist and it’s just a product of Donald Trump’s imagination — that would be really hard to reconcile.”

Policy of ‘hugs’ is over

Sheinbaum had already given early indications that she was not sold on the approach of her predecessor and mentor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who pursued a policy of “hugs not bullets” (abrazos, no balazos) when dealing with organized crime.

Rather than object to the U.S. decision to designate the cartels as terrorists, Sheinbaum has pointed out that those who finance and arm cartels — including those based in the U.S. — should also be subject to prosecution under terrorism laws.

She has also warned that Mexico will widen lawsuits it is already pursuing against U.S. gunmakers. Sheinbaum frequently cites U.S. Department of Justice statistics that show three-quarters of arms seized from Mexican cartels originated in the U.S.

Most importantly, Sheinbaum has been able to show success in the fight against cartels, and particularly against the cartel that has long been most successful in corrupting and co-opting the Mexican government: the cartel of Sinaloa.

The last week has seen an acceleration in the disintegration of the cartel that is the most prolific trafficker of fentanyl into the United States, as Mexican law enforcement takes advantage of a violent split among the Sinaloans to go after both rival factions.

Mexicans have noted for a generation that the efforts of their country’s law enforcement officials seemed only rarely to be directed at the cartel led by Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, and indeed sometimes seemed to aid the Sinaloans by going after their rivals.

Through gang wars and other vicissitudes, including the capture and extradition of El Chapo, the Sinaloa cartel enjoyed relative stability.

That gave the Sinaloans space to lead the transformation from a business model built on shipping plant-based drugs such as cocaine, black-tar heroin and marijuana, to one that imported chemical precursors from Asia and used them to manufacture synthetic drugs such as methamphetamine and fentanyl.

But last July, in an incident that remains to be fully clarified, El Mayo was tricked or abducted onto a small aircraft in Mexico that delivered him to U.S. authorities in New Mexico. On the same flight was one of El Chapo’s sons, Joaquin, whom El Mayo accused of being in on the trap.

The most important effect of El Mayo’s capture has been the fallout within the cartel.

A cartel fractures

His detention, and the accusations of treachery that followed, have led to open warfare between El Chapo’s sons, known as Los Chapitos, and the faction loyal to El Mayo, known as La Mayiza, led by his son Ismael Zambada Sicairos or “Mayito Flaco.”

Both Joaquin and Ovidio Guzman are in custody and appear increasingly likely to seek U.S. plea deals in exchange for co-operation against other cartel members, possibly including El Mayo.

As the cartel has ruptured, Mexico’s law enforcement and military have taken advantage to kill or capture large numbers of captains and foot soldiers of both the Chapitos faction and La Mayiza.

While Mexican security experts are often skeptical of captures and crackdowns, there is broad consensus that the attack on Los Chapitos is real, and has the organization on the run. Senior members of La Mayiza have also been captured in recent days, and there have been large seizures of drugs, precursors, arms and ammunition.

Memories of gringo aggression

Baker said that Sheinbaum is always aware that she rules a nation deeply suspicious of American motives, and with a history of U.S. interventionism, such as the occupation of Veracruz in the early 20th century.

“All of those episodes in our history are remembered in the sense of the U.S. being this very large interventionist, even imperialistic country that wishes to impose its will on other countries,” he said.

Trump’s belligerence toward Panama and Greenland has only resurfaced those memories, he said.

Sheinbaum has therefore tried to satisfy the United States that she’s serious about fighting the cartels, without appearing to take actions in Mexico at the Trump administration’s bidding.

“Some of the operations in terms of seizures of drugs and components, the presence of the National Guard in the northern border in Mexico, all of those are signals that the Mexican government is sending to the United States to say, you know, we are taking your concerns seriously,” Baker said.

But he said to retain the support of Mexicans, Sheinbaum needs to project an image that she is taking these actions for the good of the country, not “because the U.S. told us to.”

Mixed messages on tariffs

Whether this progress will be enough to satisfy the Trump administration is unclear.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has made comments that suggested Mexico could be on track to satisfying U.S. demands.

“The Mexicans have a good team and I think we’re going to have something positive on that front fairly soon,” he told the podcast Clay & Buck on Feb. 14. 

“We’re working on a plan with them, collectively. We’re working on our side of the border, they’re working on their side, so we can take care of their gun-running problem, take care of the fentanyl problem, and the mass migration problem, and the cartel problem.”

But on Monday, during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, Trump stated that “The tariffs are going forward, on time, on schedule.” Then the following day, the Trump administration clarified the timeline is to be determined.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk and other Republicans have continued to push for airstrikes or drone strikes on Mexican cartels, without seeking the permission of the Mexican government.

Musk tweeted in response to the terrorism designation: “That means they’re eligible for drone strikes.”

Drone strikes would change everything

It is that threat that’s prompted Sheinbaum to seek to amend the constitution.

The proposed changes would give Mexico the power to detain foreigners preventively without trial if it has evidence of their involvement in activities that violate Mexican sovereignty.

Her message is that Mexico is willing to work with the U.S., but only Mexico decides what happens on Mexican soil.

“With Mexico, you can have collaboration and co-operation, but never subordination. No interference, much less invasion,” Sheinbaum said Monday.

This would likely give pause to any U.S. action that put Americans on the wrong side of Mexican law. It’s less clear that it would work to deter unmanned activities such as drone strikes.

Such attacks would be “extremely, extremely serious,” Baker said.

“Public opinion in Mexico is starting to get wind of this, especially after Elon Musk started displaying those messages in social media.”

Mexico’s history with the United States, and the strength of public feeling about past gringo incursions, would leave the Sheinbaum government with no real choice but to respond forcefully.

“Mexico will very likely stop co-operating, or stop other means of communication with the United States. It’s not really hard to imagine. How do you expect me to help you with topics A, B and C after you bombed one of my cities?”