Arif Haidary, an Afghan refugee who arrived in Germany 10 years ago as an unaccompanied minor, has difficulty understanding the historic change that took place during Sunday’s vote.
“The election went very, very badly,” he said.
When Haidary arrived in Germany in 2015, Angela Merkel was chancellor and the country was cited as a model for welcoming refugees. While much of the rest of Europe closed its borders, Germany opened the door to more than one million refugees in 2015.
But times have changed.
The centre-right Christian Democratic alliance (CDU/CSU), which has taken a hard stance on migration by promising a “fundamental” overhaul of asylum rules and border control, scored around 29 per cent of the vote in last weekend’s election.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD), which made repeated calls for remigration (deportation of people with a migrant background), got 20.8 per cent, the highest score for the far right since the end of the Second World War.
Germany elected Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Sunday’s snap election, but the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) are celebrating a record second-place result. Andrew Chang breaks down the makeup of the new coalition government the CDU will need to form, and the significance of the AfD’s gains.
Images supplied by Reuters, Getty Images and the Canadian Press.
The election was held after Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote last year following the collapse of his coalition government.
Immigration was the top priority of voters, especially after a series of attacks, like when an Afghan refugee drove a car into the crowd during a demonstration in Munich two weeks ago, killing a mother and her child.
On the night of the Munich attack, “I received so many racist messages, saying that we, Afghans, kill a lot of people,” said Haidary, who is also vice-president of the Munich Migration Advisory Council.
“Unfortunately, a large part of that is the fault of politicians — they often try to generalize this issue and make all Afghans look like that. I think now it will get worse. Every refugee is scared.”
Fear of deportations
Friedrich Merz, who looks set to become German chancellor after his party emerged victorious, must now try to form a coalition to govern.
Even if Merz rules out an alliance with the far right, many remember that he accepted the support of the AfD a few weeks ago, when he tabled an anti-immigration motion in parliament. It was a first in the country, which is used to maintaining a “firewall” against the far right.
That alliance led to massive demonstrations throughout the country.
The term “remigration” became part of the rhetoric during the election campaign.
AfD, whose leader, Alice Weidel, is in a relationship with a Sri Lankan-born woman, even made election campaign flyers in the style of one-way plane tickets to send migrants home.
“I’m very worried,” said Cameron Kakande, a refugee from Uganda who fled persecution in his country four years ago for Munich. “They say that all people with migrant backgrounds will maybe need to leave the country. I’m one of those people. But Uganda is not a safe place for me.”
Uganda is considered one of the most dangerous countries for 2SLGBTQ+ people, who risk the death penalty.
“Coming to Germany wasn’t my first choice, because of the language and everything. I would have loved to go maybe to the U.S. or to Canada. But when your life’s in danger, you go where it is possible to go the fastest,” said Kakande.
He was able to obtain a visa for Germany in 2021 to fly there. Since then, Kakande has been working as an HIV activist in NGOs, has learned the language and feels integrated. But he also fears more discrimination now.
“You may find that there are people who don’t have any problem with refugees, but once they start hearing all these [political] narratives, their mindset changes.”
Labour shortage
Germany has imposed temporary land border restrictions in the past months and started returning people to Afghanistan, a first since the return to power of the Taliban.
“The next four years will be very difficult for refugees and people with a migration background. These people will no longer feel comfortable, and there will also be more deportations,” said Haidary.
At the same time, the German economy is in crisis after two years of recession and needs more labour with an aging population.
“We have, like, 400,000 vacant jobs every year. We need these people who want to work in sectors where there are shortages, like in health care,” said Britta Coy, founder of JUNO, an NGO that helps refugee women in Munich.
For example, around 10,000 Syrians work in German hospitals, according to the Syrian Society for Doctors and Pharmacists in Germany.
JUNO, which relies on public subsidies, is trying to find new donors, as it fears a change in funding.
“I suppose [the incoming government] will cut down social aids for refugees, and there will be even less money available for integration projects and NGOs, which is so important,” said Coy. “If you cut that down, people don’t really have the chance to start a new life here.”
Watershed for 2SLGBTQ+ rights?
The 2SLGBTQ+ community is also worried about seeing a decline in their rights.
For example, Merz’s party and the AfD have vowed to revoke the self-determination law, which made it easier for people to change their gender on official records.
“The sentences of Merz about the genders, saying that he can support the idea of [U.S. President Donald] Trump that there are only two genders, and the AfD, which is really against LGBTQ+ even if its leader is in a couple with a girl, are not a good sign at all,” said Tobias Oliveira Weismantel, managing director of Munich Aids-Hilfe. It’s an NGO that provides services to the 2SLGBTQ+ community and people living with HIV.
He says the current discourse could lead to stigmatization of the community, at a time when Germany is already experiencing a rise in violence against 2SLGBTQ+ people, according to Weismantel.
“My biggest concern is for trans people. We know that they are already dealing with depression, psychological problems and a high rate of suicide,” he said. “Populism is never good for suicide. I’m really worried.”
The AfD’s manifesto for the last election defines family as a “father, mother and children.” It calls for minors to be protected from what it describes as “the trans cult, early sexualization and gender ideology.”
Vicky Voyage, a drag queen from Munich, says that she has already seen a change.
“Now, every time I’m doing a drag story hour for children, people from the far right come to protest in front of the library and say we are pedophiles and sexualize young people. The children need to come through a secret door so they don’t know about the demonstration,” Voyage explained.
The protesters “don’t understand that we only create a safe space for queer children.”
In recent months, Weidel has courted allies known for their strong stance against 2SLGBTQ+ rights. That includes Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and currently a major force in the U.S. government under President Donald Trump. Musk blamed “the woke mind virus” for his transgender daughter’s transition.
“I was thinking we will never have a situation like in the U.S., but the populism from America has now arrived in Europe, and with Trump, it’s even getting worse,” said Voyage. She sees the recent German election results as a final warning.
“If the next government fails in the next four years, the AfD will grow even more. And there is a real risk that it will come to power.”
