The French Riviera, with its serene Mediterranean Sea that often resembles a tranquil lake, might seem like an unlikely place for a tsunami. While the region of Provence Alpes Cote d’Azur experiences about 10 to 15 earthquakes annually, most of them are of a low magnitude and go unnoticed. However, the possibility of a larger, more destructive quake looms over the coastal region.

The convergence of the Africa and Eurasia tectonic plates places this area in an active seismic zone. A 2019 report from the French Ministry of the Environment stated that, in the worst-case scenario, an earthquake could result in as many as 2,500 fatalities and leave approximately 200,000 people homeless.

Research Director at the Géoazur laboratory and seismologist Françoise Courboulex, told Nice Matin: “We know that there is a risk of a magnitude 6 or 6.5 earthquake, with a fairly high probability.”

“We’re not expecting a magnitude 7, 8 or 9 earthquake but a 6.5 can cause very significant damage.”

The expert describes the seismic risk as ‘medium’. 

The estimated cost of such an event is estimated to be between 14 and 29 billion euros £11.5 billion – £24billion).

In June 2022, UNESCO warned that the likelihood of a tsunami of over 1 meter in the Mediterranean within the next 30 years is nearly 100%.

UNESCO Tsunami Program Head, Bernardo Aliaga, said: “The faults [fractures in the Earth’s crust] are active in the Mediterranean, they move regularly.”

In December 2024, a UNESCO delegation visited Canned and stated that there was a significant risk of a tsunami in the next coming years in the French Riviera. 

Coastal towns like Cannes and Antibes have already been preparing for this potential risk with evactuation routes and signs. 

Cannes has become the first city in the Mediterranean to be officially recognised as “Tsunami Ready” by the UNESCO, for its proactive measures in preparing for potential tsunami risks, including alert systems, evacuation plans, and public awareness efforts. 

Efforts are currently underway to mitigate these risks in the region by strengthening construction standards, preparing crisis management plans, and increasing public awareness through education and simulations.