Under-fire Kemi Badenoch has just passed the 100-day mark as Conservative Party leader.
Despite a multitude of disagreements there seems to be one thing on which she agrees with nemesis Nigel Farage: neither want anything to do with the other.
The Reform UK leader already ruled out any deal with the Conservatives for the next election, referring to the party as “dishonourable” and “undeserving”.
Now, Badenoch has again ruled out such a deal on The Daily T Telegraph podcast, despite her old leadership rival Robert Jenrick recently refusing to rule out a pact with Reform.
Both leaders are likely appealing to core bases, looking as well as to project confidence as local elections loom.
Yet, on current poll numbers the two parties combined could rule in coalition, with Reform likely the senior partner.
In many ways, Farage has the greater reason to be confident since it is Reform’s star in the ascendancy.
The beleaguered Badenoch allegedly dislikes doing media rounds, fundraising, and glad-handing, all core parts of the job for Opposition leader.
All this must be a frustration to a Tory faithful nervous at the declining poll numbers. Will that same faithful eventually tire of Badenoch?
This perhaps represents the greatest risk to Farage. If Tory poll numbers continue to disappoint, and frustrations with Badenoch’s leadership continue, how much longer can she last?
A new Tory leader doesn’t guarantee a turnaround in fortune — and Badenoch could prove her detractors wrong — but right now one of Farage’s greatest assets is an underwhelming Tory leadership unable to make the weather.
Badenoch can put a brave face on all this. Just last weekend another one of her ministers ruled out the idea of any pact with Reform.
But this is not the single-issue Brexit Party the Conservatives are up against.
Reform UK is a genuine alternative with serious policies and representation in the Commons. No longer can critics rib Farage about his failure to become an MP. He is one.
Meanwhile, the Tories are running out of funds and party membership is falling behind that of Reform’s.
Not only does Farage have every incentive to demonstrate a break with the Tories but why would he want anything to do with a toxic and tainted Tory brand?
That said, Conservative impatience with Badenoch is perhaps Farage’s greatest threat, and Reform must capitalise now lest a new broom comes in and transforms Tory fortunes.
In the event a Reform-Tory pact could oust Labour, see Farage become PM and lead to Reform swallowing up the Tories, who knows what could happen?
But, for now anyway, Farage holds the better hand, Reform is rising and professionalising, and the Tories have seemingly not come to terms with how bad their situation truly is.
Badenoch just crossed the 100-day mark. But the question on Tory voters’ minds will surely be: Can she last another hundred?
